Introduction: The domestic acrylic emulsion market is currently in a volatile state, caught between upward and downward pressures. While the prices of key raw materials such as butyl acrylate, MMA, and styrene have fluctuated sharply, they continue to provide some support for acrylic emulsion prices. However, sustained demand from downstream end-users remains insufficient, limiting the upside potential for acrylic emulsion prices. As of April 17, the reference price for low-solid-content styrene-acrylic emulsion in China is 6,800–7,800 RMB/ton, while pure acrylic emulsion is priced at 8,000–8,400 RMB/ton.

Cost: Costs Fluctuate Downward, with Rigid Support Temporarily Easing

Recent data shows that the butyl acrylate market has been trending weakly downward, with prices gradually declining. Taking the East China market as an example, prices currently range between 11,500 and 12,000 RMB/ton, down 570 RMB/ton from the previous week, a decrease of 4.58%. MMA prices have also fallen. As of the 16th, negotiated prices in East China are around 14,100–14,400 RMB/ton; in Shandong, they are 13,900–14,000 RMB/ton; and in South China, 14,800–15,400 RMB/ton. Compared to the previous week, these represent declines of -3.00%, -3.65%, and -2.42%, respectively. The domestic styrene market has seen narrow adjustments, with prices mainly experiencing slight declines. In Jiangsu, spot transactions ranged from a high of 10,315 RMB/ton to a low of 10,140 RMB/ton, with a spread of 175 RMB/ton, indicating a noticeable narrowing of volatility.

Although recent minor fluctuations in raw material prices have temporarily eased cost support, over a longer period, the overall price level of raw materials has risen significantly. The current decline in raw material prices has not been immediately reflected in emulsion producers' quotations, resulting in a lag in the transmission of cost changes to market prices.

Market Conditions: Cost Support Weakens, Market Expected to Remain Volatile at High Levels in the Short Term

While high raw material prices previously provided strong cost support for emulsions, the generally weaker prices this week have reduced this support. On the supply side, acrylic emulsion producers are largely adopting a wait-and-see approach, keeping their quotations stable with little inclination to adjust prices proactively. On the demand side, end-users in downstream sectors such as coatings and adhesives show limited purchasing interest and are reluctant to accept high raw material prices. Most are maintaining only essential restocking, leading to subdued market activity and limited actual order placement.

Market sentiment remains cautious, as the recent decline in prices of key raw materials like butyl acrylate, MMA, and styrene has heightened downstream users'观望心态 (wait-and-see attitude), with the prevailing mentality of "buying on rising prices, not on falling ones" still in play.

Analysis of Production Profit Fluctuations

Data indicates that the acrylic emulsion industry is generally operating at breakeven or even at a loss. Currently, the theoretical production gross profit for pure acrylic emulsion is -46.5 RMB/ton, with a gross margin of -0.57%, while for styrene-acrylic emulsion, it is 489.76 RMB/ton, with a gross margin of 6.71%. Compared to the previous week, the production gross profit for pure acrylic emulsion increased by 163.5 RMB/ton, and for styrene-acrylic emulsion by 212.76 RMB/ton. This improvement is primarily due to the weak performance of raw material prices (butyl acrylate, MMA, and styrene) during the week, which reduced acrylic emulsion production costs. With acrylic emulsion market prices remaining stable, production profits saw a week-on-week increase.

Outlook: Bull-Bear Standoff to Persist, Short-Term Volatility Unlikely to Change

In summary, following the decline in raw material prices and the subsequent weakening of market prices in April, downstream users' willingness to stockpile remains modest, with most opting for essential restocking only. The ongoing tug-of-war between supply and demand, coupled with most users' reluctance to build inventory aggressively, has further dampened market trading activity. Amid this bull-bear standoff, the acrylic emulsion market is expected to maintain its volatile pattern in the near term.