I. Market Status: Recently, the domestic acrylic acid market has exhibited typical characteristics of "supply-demand game and stable consolidation." The market is characterized by stable prices, but there are different pressures and supports on both the supply and demand sides. As of January 6, the benchmark price of acrylic acid from Business Society was 5,850.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.
II. Supply and Demand Dynamics: The current market stalemate is the result of a balance of forces between supply and demand:
Supply Side: The industry's operating rate is not only high but has also shown stable price trends since early January, providing ample spot resources to the market. This is the primary factor suppressing price increases.
Demand Side: The core support for the market comes solely from rigid demand purchases by downstream users. Due to issues such as slow capital recovery in terminal sectors (e.g., coatings, textiles), there is generally low interest in the traditional "winter stocking" before the Spring Festival. Most purchases are small-scale and based on immediate needs. This has led to a subdued overall trading atmosphere in the market, failing to provide upward momentum for prices.
Cost Side: The prices of key upstream raw materials, propylene and n-butanol, have shown moderate increases recently. While overall cost support for acrylic acid remains acceptable, it lacks strong driving force and has not broken the balance of the supply-demand game. As of January 6, the benchmark price of propylene from Business Society was 5,744.33 yuan/ton, up 0.47% compared to the beginning of the month (5,717.67 yuan/ton). On January 6, the benchmark price of n-butanol (industrial grade) from Business Society was 5,633.33 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.
III. Future Outlook: Overall, the market is expected to maintain a narrow consolidation trend in the short term. High supply and weak stocking demand together form a "ceiling" for price increases. Current rigid demand and high costs also set a "floor" for prices, making it difficult for them to fall significantly. The key points moving forward are: whether downstream stocking activities before the Spring Festival will pick up as time progresses, and whether there will be unexpected adjustments in the operating rates on the supply side. These two factors will be the main variables that could break the current balance and guide the market's direction.
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