Introduction: Recently, domestic unsaturated polyester resin (UPR) prices have maintained a pattern of high-level fluctuations. As of April 16th, the mainstream ex-factory price in the East China market is reported at 10,800-10,900 RMB/ton. Although prices on the upstream cost side have seen some pullback, the overall level remains historically high. The current raw material market shows a divergent trend: styrene prices have experienced a phased rebound, while other raw materials are generally under downward pressure. On the demand side, end-users continue to purchase based on rigid needs, with some traders proactively lowering their offers to facilitate transactions. From the supply perspective, most production enterprises maintain normal operations, although there have been instances of reduced operating rates at some facilities in certain regions this week, with limited impact on overall output.

I. Price Declines Predominate for UPR and Related Products

According to chempricehub data, the mainstream negotiated price for UPR in the East China market is 10,800-10,900 RMB/ton, with a mainstream offer of 10,900 RMB/ton, representing a week-on-week decrease of 100 RMB/ton or 0.91%. Support from the cost side weakened this week, as prices for most raw materials fell, with only propylene glycol and neopentyl glycol seeing slight increases. The primary influencing factor was the reduced support from the cost side: raw material styrene fluctuated downward, with prices falling 2.41% week-on-week; diethylene glycol prices also declined by 1.64%; and maleic anhydride performed the weakest, with a single-week drop of 6.07%. A few raw materials bucked the trend: propylene glycol and neopentyl glycol were among the minority showing increases, rising slightly by 1.31% and 0.76% respectively.

The UPR market experienced narrow-range fluctuations at high levels this week, with prices slightly declining. As of April 16th, the spot market reference price for UPR in East China remained at 10,800-10,900 RMB/ton, down 100-200 RMB/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.91-1.82%. Recently, the supply side of the industry has continued its loose trend, coupled with weakened cost support. Most factories have stabilized or lowered their ex-factory prices, with adjustments generally in the range of 100-200 RMB/ton; a few companies have held prices steady or temporarily suspended quotations. In the spot market, although raw material prices collectively fell at the beginning of the week, resin producers mostly adopted a wait-and-see stance and did not immediately follow with price adjustments. Mid-week, while the cost side provided some phased support for prices, international crude oil experienced a significant drop within the week and struggled to rebound, putting pressure on market sentiment. Furthermore, the sustained wide-ranging price increases earlier in the year have increased downstream transmission resistance, leading both buyers and sellers to adopt a cautious approach: mainstream trader offers remained stable, primarily following market trends, while downstream purchases were limited to rigid demand, resulting in an overall subdued trading atmosphere.

II. UPR Industry Operating Rates Increase, Supply-Side Pressure Persists

On the supply side, there were no new planned maintenance shutdowns for UPR facilities this week. Resin plants that had temporarily halted production during the Qingming Festival have gradually resumed operations. However, due to weak new order demand, some enterprises proactively reduced their operating rates to balance supply and demand. The overall industry capacity utilization rate increased by 4 percentage points week-on-week to 38%. Although leading companies like Wanglin implemented load reduction measures, the scale of maintenance was limited, leading to a slight rebound in the operating rate this week.

III. UPR Profitability Sees Some Recovery

The current UPR market is characterized by narrow-range consolidation, with price fluctuation bands narrowing. Industry profits saw a slight recovery compared to last week, mainly influenced by the following factors: 1) Cost Pressure Eases: Upstream raw material prices generally retreated, leading to weakened support from production costs, with the theoretical cost around 10,778 RMB/ton. 2) Resilience Evident: Despite downward pressure, resin prices maintained high-level fluctuations, with actual transaction prices slightly above the cost line, resulting in an average gross profit of 182 RMB/ton and a recovery in profitability. 3) Supply-Demand Stalemate: The industry faces phased overcapacity, limiting suppliers' bargaining power. The overall market maintains a weak balance, with profit margins at medium-to-low levels.

IV. Forecast for Subsequent UPR Market Development

In the near term, domestic UPR market prices lack clear catalysts for an uptick and may face further downside potential.

• Cost Side: Market sentiment is not highly bullish on the absolute price of styrene. Spot prices saw limited declines this week, with Jiangsu spot prices expected to be around 10,400 RMB/ton.
• Supply Side: Domestic UPR plant operations are generally stable overall. However, with some individual enterprises implementing load reductions, the industry's capacity utilization rate is expected to decline slightly compared to this week. UPR supply will remain ample.
• Demand Side: Downstream demand for UPR is generally tepid. Increased activity in individual sectors is insufficient to effectively boost the UPR market. Industry participants remain cautious and difficult to motivate, mostly maintaining low inventory levels and following market trends.

In summary, the price increases in March have already absorbed order demand for April. The current market shows a gradual downtrend. Influenced by the "buy on rising prices, not on falling prices" psychology, downstream customers are primarily observing raw material price trends. Purchasing is concentrated on rigid demand, with active digestion of existing inventories. Coupled with a lack of strength in subsequent new orders, prices may continue a slow downward trend in the short term.

UPR Jiangsu Visit: April 27-30