According to the Business Society Commodity Market Analysis System: In 2025, the domestic butadiene market started the year with an average price of 10,800 RMB/ton and ended the year with an average price of 8,333.33 RMB/ton, marking an annual decline of 22.84%. The butadiene market in 2025 exhibited a trend of "rising first then falling, fluctuating and weakening." The year can be divided into two phases: the first half saw a rise followed by a decline, while the second half experienced a fluctuating downward trend. Based on the Business Society monthly K-bar chart, the butadiene market in 2025 had more declining months than rising ones, with 5 months of increase and 7 months of decrease. The highest increase occurred in December, rising by 19.33%, while the largest decline was in April, falling by 17.58%. Note: The commodity price K-bar chart applies the concept of price trend K-lines, using a bar chart format to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations. Investors can use changes in the K-bar chart for trading and investment decisions. Red indicates an increase; green indicates a decrease; the height of the K-bar represents the magnitude of the price change. **I. Review of the 2025 Butadiene Market** **First Half: Policy and Supply Factors Lead to Initial Rise Followed by Decline, Overall Downward Trend** In the first half of 2025, the butadiene market was significantly influenced by short-term factors. The core logic of ample supply and demand remained unchanged, with price fluctuations tied to plant maintenance and policies. The overall trend was an initial rise followed by a decline, resulting in an overall downward movement. **January–April: Ample Supply and Demand Dominate, Prices Fluctuate Downward** From January to April, ample supply and demand were the main drivers, leading to a continuous price decline. On the supply side, the gradual release of a combined 400,000 tons of new capacity from Wanhua Phase II and ExxonMobil brought the total industry capacity to 7.037 million tons. Imports in January–February increased significantly year-on-year, East China port inventories were high, and plant operating rates remained stable around 75%, indicating ample supply. On the demand side, affected by Sino-US tariff disruptions, the operating rates of synthetic rubber and tire industries were under pressure. The ABS industry had high inventory levels, maintaining only essential procurement. Prices fell from 10,800 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year to 9,200 RMB/ton by the end of April, reaching a阶段性 low point for the first half. **May: Supply Contraction Coupled with Policy Support Leads to Significant Price Increase** In May, the market reversed, with prices rapidly surging before fluctuating. The supply side was the core driver. Concentrated maintenance at Hengli's 140,000-ton and Maoming Petrochemical's 50,000-ton units significantly impacted capacity. East China port inventories dropped to low levels, traders held back sales to support prices, and Sinopec raised its quoted price to 11,100 RMB/ton. On the demand side, boosted by the easing of Sino-US tariffs, synthetic rubber futures rose. The operating rate of polybutadiene rubber increased to 74.7%, and downstream restocking demand was released. The maximum monthly increase exceeded 22%. **June: Bearish Fundamentals Lead to Price Fluctuation and Retreat** In June, the market热度 subsided, with prices fluctuating, retreating, and stabilizing. On the supply side, maintenance units gradually restarted, imported supply补充 increased, and East China port inventories微升, returning the market to an ample state. On the demand side, high synthetic rubber inventories became prominent, polybutadiene prices weakened, downstream resisted high-priced raw materials, and trading was subdued. **Second Half: Supply Overhang is the Core Contradiction, Falling 7.41%** **July–September: Supply Overhang Intensifies, Prices Continue Downward Trend** From July to September, the contradiction between market supply and demand became prominent, with prices steadily declining. On the supply side, the refinery maintenance season ended, plant operating rates recovered to above 65%, the ExxonMobil Huizhou project operated at full capacity, and the inflow of 140,000 tons of supply from Lotte Chemical Indonesia's unit into Asia持续加码 supply pressure. Import arbitrage windows opened, with concentrated arrivals of European and American cargoes further加剧 inventory pressure. On the demand side, tire industry operating rates were relatively low, synthetic rubber inventories were high, and downstream maintained only essential procurement. Prices fell from 8,840 RMB/ton in early July to 7,200 RMB/ton by the end of September, hitting a new annual low. **October–November: Weak Supply-Demand Balance, Market Fluctuates Within a Range** From October to November, the market entered a state of weak balance, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. On the supply side, maintenance at some units led to a微降 in production. After restarting, units like Fushun Petrochemical operated at low rates. East China port inventories underwent阶段性 destocking to 24,600 tons, alleviating some pressure. However, expectations of arriving import shipments remained, and the ample supply格局 did not change. On the demand side, tire industry operating rates recovered to常规 levels, synthetic rubber futures showed firm trends, providing阶段性 support for butadiene. Prices fluctuated within the 7,000–7,500 RMB/ton range, with trading primarily focused on low-price transactions. **December: Short-Term Positive Factors Boost Prices, Leading to Fluctuating Rebound** In December, market sentiment回暖, with prices fluctuating upward. On the supply side, the临时停车检修 of Dongming Petrochemical's unit reduced supply. Mainstream companies集中上调报价, with Sinopec's挂牌价 rising to 8,300 RMB/ton. Traders' willingness to support prices增强. On the demand side, synthetic rubber spot and futures markets联动上涨, with polybutadiene rubber prices rising by 4.03%, driving improvement in raw material procurement demand. At the end of the month, boosted by rising overseas markets, prices increased to 8,012.5 RMB/ton, marking a monthly increase of 13.85%. However, high-price transactions encountered resistance, and weak terminal demand constrained the涨幅, leading the market into a fluctuating consolidation态势. **II. Outlook for the 2026 Butadiene Market** **Cost Side: 2026 Oil Prices to Fluctuate at Low Levels, Cost Support Weak** Persistent conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions will continue to发酵, posing不定时 direct impacts on oil prices and causing阶段性波动, but难以改变 the long-term trend. The supply-side过剩格局 will延续 into the first half of 2026. The IEA predicts a global oil surplus of 4.09 million barrels per day. US shale oil is expected to lead the增量 with an increase of 1.2 million barrels per day. Although OPEC+ plans to暂停增产 in Q1 2026, internal分歧 and insufficient闲置产能 limit the调控效果, making it likely that the价格中枢 will continue to下移. Influenced by supply-demand博弈,叠加 geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ policy调控, Business Society predicts that the crude oil market in 2026 will overall呈现 a "low-level fluctuation"走势. **Supply Side: Expected Increase** New butadiene capacity additions in 2026 are expected to be大幅缩减 compared to 2025, as the industry enters a产能消化期. Influenced by the推进 of previous large ethylene project配套, approximately 500,000 tons of new capacity is预计 for the year, significantly lower than the 1.2 million-ton increment in 2025. Total year-end capacity is有望突破 8.4 million tons. Most new capacity comes from炼化一体化配套装置, concentrated in East and South China, with较强的装置开工稳定性. The annual industry operating rate is预计 to remain in the 68%–72% range. According to customs statistics: From January to November 2025, cumulative butadiene imports reached 449,700 tons, a year-on-year increase exceeding 50%. November alone saw imports of 56,000 tons, with net imports of 56,200 tons,环比大增 69.80%, but同比减少 17.14%, mainly due to no exports that month and a大幅增量 in imports. The import格局 in 2026 is趋于平稳. With domestic capacity释放, the frequency of import arbitrage windows opening will减少. Annual imports are预计 to remain at 450,000–500,000 tons, primarily to补充高端货源缺口. Meanwhile, overseas plant maintenance and recovering Asian market demand will制约 the impact of imported supply on the domestic market. Supply-side pressure is expected to有所缓解 compared to 2025. **Demand Side: Stable with Potential Increase** In terms of consumption, synthetic rubber is the core downstream for butadiene. Synthetic rubber produced using butadiene as a raw material accounts for over 80% of total synthetic rubber production. Therefore, from a consumption structure perspective, polybutadiene rubber and styrene-butadiene rubber each account for about 30% of butadiene consumption, ABS accounts for about 12%, latex and SBC each account for about 9%, and nitrile rubber accounts for about 5%. In 2026, new capacity for polybutadiene rubber and styrene-butadiene rubber is预计 to reach 450,000 tons and 405,000 tons, respectively. The proportion of high-performance varieties like solution-polymerized SBR and rare-earth polybutadiene is提升,适配 the growing demand for new energy vehicle tires, driving the稳步释放 of butadiene's essential demand. The ABS industry,伴随 smart home appliances and automotive lightweighting demand升级, is expected to see improved capacity utilization, further补充 butadiene demand. **Market Forecast:** **Short-term:** After entering January, influenced by the Spring Festival holiday, downstream sectors普遍 have pre-holiday stocking需求. At the end of December, the butadiene market already experienced a wave of上涨行情 boosted by relatively tight supply. After entering January, under the influence of downstream demand, there is预计仍有部分上行空间. **Long-term:** The market supply-demand格局 is转向宽松, with prices呈 "fluctuating downward,重心下移" trend. On the supply side, approximately 620,000 tons of new annual capacity is多集中于 for release in the fourth quarter. Although some unit投产时间滞后 may affect actual production,叠加 annual imports of 450,000–500,000 tons, total supply will reach approximately 6.18 million tons. Supply pressure will逐步加大.受此影响, the butadiene market's继续上升空间 is有限. However, downstream demand仍有支撑. It is预计 that the butadiene market will仍将保持高位震荡走势为主. Subsequent focus should be on the运行情况 of the downstream synthetic rubber market.