【Preface】 International oil prices continue to rise, leading to a bullish sentiment among end-users. Downstream demand is increasing, and the shipment of C5 petroleum resin has accelerated rapidly.
1. Cracking C5 rebounds and piperylene prices bottom out
As of this Friday, prices for industrial cracking C5 from major producers have risen by 100–200 yuan/ton, while private enterprises have also pushed prices higher. On Thursday, July 16, cracking C5 in North China increased by 100 yuan/ton to 5,250 yuan/ton; in East China, it rose by 200 yuan/ton to 5,250 yuan/ton; in Northeast China, the range was 4,900–5,520 yuan/ton; in South China, prices were 4,850–5,250 yuan/ton (some unchanged, others up 200). Some private-sector prices rebounded to 5,550–6,003 yuan/ton.
2. Downstream demand for C5 petroleum resin triggers restocking
Although July is still the off-season for downstream hot-melt adhesives and hot-melt coatings, the sustained rise in international oil prices has driven up raw material C5 prices. To avoid a repeat of the supply shortage seen in March–April, downstream buyers have increased procurement volumes. Additionally, as August approaches, there is an expectation of rising demand. Some major downstream customers have taken advantage of the low prices to stock up in batches, selling opportunistically, which has rapidly expanded market transaction volumes.
3. C5 petroleum resin supply remains at a low level
This week, C5 petroleum resin output stood at 7,000 tons, with an operating rate of 51.6%, compared to just 48.93% last week. The overall operating rate during June–July has been maintained at 48%–63%, resulting in a sustained decline in market supply.
Summary
On the whole, the rebound in raw material cracking C5 and piperylene prices is driven by two factors: first, the continuous modest uptick in international oil prices; and second, the recovery of end-user demand and low inventory levels, which have prompted phased restocking. Market expectations have shifted rapidly from a downtrend to a bullish outlook, and weekly transaction volumes have surged. Inventory levels have dropped by 20%–40% across the board. Support for the C5 petroleum resin market has improved noticeably, and all pricing discounts have been withdrawn. As a result, prices have effectively risen by 300–700 yuan/ton, varying by grade.
Looking ahead to next week, raw material C5 and piperylene prices are expected to continue their slight upward trend, with downstream buyers still in need of stockpiling. However, the unclear situation between the U.S. and Iran may dampen end-user demand release, leading to potential fluctuations in market trading. The C5 petroleum resin market is likely to maintain its current pattern of continued inventory drawdown and limited supply, with negotiated prices trending steadily higher.
Comments
0