[Lead] The recent trend in the acetone market has undergone significant changes. The previously cost-driven upward rally has ended, and since April 8, the acetone market has officially entered a downward adjustment channel. The core reason for this shift lies in the easing of geopolitical risks, which has gradually undermined cost support. The market's dominant logic has shifted from cost-push to demand-driven dynamics. As a result, after experiencing a sharp decline from its peak, the acetone market saw a phased rebound and bottoming-out around April 22, exhibiting a pattern of "high-level retreat, bottoming, and reversal."

From the chart above, it can be seen that the domestic acetone market peaked in early April (with the average price in the Jiangsu market at 8,450 yuan/ton). However, prices took a steep downturn from April 8, dropping all the way to 7,050 yuan/ton by April 21. Following the earlier decline, the acetone market saw a phased rebound from April 22. As of April 23, the closing average price in the Jiangsu acetone market stood at 7,275 yuan/ton.

In the earlier phase, the continuous decline in the acetone market center was primarily driven by price cuts from producers. Beginning on April 8, major plants in Shandong started to lower their opening prices, with cumulative reductions reaching 1,800 yuan/ton by April 21. Other plants followed with significant cuts, marking a key event in the latest round of acetone decline, which attracted considerable attention from industry participants.

The rapid decline in the market center in the previous round was fundamentally due to a dual collapse in cost and sentiment. The boosting effect of international crude oil and pure benzene prices weakened markedly, and even decoupled to some extent. With reduced cost support and the absence of strong upstream momentum, coupled with insufficient demand release, the market shifted from a cost-push logic to a supply-demand logic. As cost-driven sentiment receded, market focus returned to supply-demand fundamentals.

Although port inventories recently dropped to approximately 24,500 tons, downstream players were reluctant to follow high prices, adopting a wait-and-see stance. This led to weak market confidence, with holders selling at discounts based on market conditions. Prior to April 22, actual transaction volumes remained limited.

As the market center continued to decline, producers once again fell into losses. The intention of major plants to further lower opening prices weakened, and a sentiment of phased bottoming emerged in the acetone market. When the market center fell to around 7,000 yuan/ton, it essentially reached the purchasing price expectations of end-users. Their pace of restocking accelerated, boosting overall trading sentiment and driving the market center to rebound from the bottom.

May Market Outlook: Stalemate and Rebalancing

Entering May, the previously anticipated shift from cost-side to supply-demand-side dynamics will become a reality. The market is likely to enter a high-level stalemate phase, with a reduced probability of sharp rises or falls, though the range for movement will narrow.

1. Supply Side: Reduction in Both Domestic and Import Volumes
   Looking at domestic phenol-ketone unit maintenance schedules, the Moyi phenol-ketone unit is planned to resume operations around May 23, while the Gaohua Materials unit is scheduled for maintenance in mid-May. Of course, if Shandong Ruilin's 350,000-ton/year phenol-ketone unit successfully starts production and releases output to the market in May, it could offset some of the production losses from existing units. Chempricehub data estimates acetone production in May at 312,500 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of around 81%.
   On the import side, import volumes from Saudi Arabia and South Korea are expected to decrease, and port inventories are likely to remain at relatively low levels.

2. Demand Side: Structural Differentiation, with Rigid Demand as the Main Theme
   The primary downstream MMA industry enjoys robust profits and maintains relatively stable operations, providing the strongest rigid demand support for acetone currently. In the bisphenol A industry, Cangzhou Dahua has a maintenance plan in May, which will reduce demand for acetone. The isopropanol industry itself has thin profit margins, passively following raw material fluctuations and adopting a cautious purchasing approach, but overall operating rates are expected to increase.

In summary, the earlier surge driven by external conflicts has ended. With demand unlikely to see explosive growth and downstream players only maintaining rigid demand procurement, the acetone market will enter a pattern where it faces pressure from losses on the high side and rigid demand procurement on the low side. Therefore, Chempricehub expects the acetone market to largely remain in a high-level stalemate in the near term. From late April through May, the acetone market is undergoing a process of rebalancing.