Introduction: Looking back at the first quarter of 2026, the domestic acrylic emulsion market experienced a cycle of rising and then falling prices. At the beginning of the year, driven by strong cost pressures, the market showed an upward trend. However, as downstream demand failed to keep pace, the market quickly returned to a state of rational consolidation. Looking ahead to the second quarter, can this cost-driven trend continue, and what will be the trajectory of demand? The analysis is as follows:

Cost: Strong Initially, Weakening Later, Support Declines

| Figure 1: Raw Material Market Trend for Acrylic Emulsion |
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| Data Source: Chempricehub Information |

As shown in the chart above, after entering the first quarter, the market prices of key raw materials—butyl acrylate, styrene, and MMA—rose rapidly. By the end of March, the peak price for butyl acrylate reached approximately 12,500 RMB/ton in early March, MMA peaked at around 14,950 RMB/ton by late March, and styrene peaked at about 12,250 RMB/ton in early March. The primary reason was the strong performance of international crude oil, which drove up prices of downstream products. The sharp increase in raw material prices directly pushed up the production costs of emulsions, with costs for some emulsion types rising by over a thousand RMB, forcing suppliers to raise prices passively. However, as end-users resisted high-priced goods and cost-side support weakened, raw material prices stabilized and even declined rapidly. The diminished cost support led to a correction in emulsion prices.

Q1 Market Review: A Tug-of-War Between Cost Push and Rigid Demand

| Figure 2: Acrylic Emulsion Market Price Trend |
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| Data Source: Chempricehub Information |

In the first quarter, acrylic emulsion prices initially surged. This was mainly due to the gradual increase in raw material costs coupled with a recovery in demand after the Spring Festival holiday as downstream industries resumed operations. However, by late March, factors such as a gradual easing of supply, declining costs, and high raw material prices suppressing demand collectively led to a drop in emulsion market prices.

After the New Year, with the end of the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries like coatings and adhesives gradually resumed production. End-users began entering the market for inquiries, improving trading activity. Simultaneously, influenced by factors like high volatility in international crude oil prices, upstream raw materials experienced a historically significant price surge. The market prices of key raw materials—butyl acrylate, styrene, and MMA—rose sharply within a short period. Benefiting from strong cost support, acrylic emulsion prices increased rapidly. The peak price for low-estimate pure acrylic emulsion reached around 8,500 RMB/ton, while styrene-acrylic emulsion reached approximately 7,550 RMB/ton.

By late March, the momentum for price increases gradually faded, and the market reached an inflection point. On one hand, the tight supply situation for raw materials eased, with prices retreating slightly from highs, reducing cost support for emulsions and alleviating pressure on producers. On the other hand, the pass-through of higher acrylic emulsion prices to downstream industries was hindered. Downstream sectors like coatings and adhesives showed very low acceptance of high-priced raw materials, adopting a cautious procurement approach and maintaining only small orders for essential needs. As of March 27th, pure acrylic emulsion prices stabilized in the range of 8,300-8,700 RMB/ton, and styrene-acrylic emulsion prices stabilized between 6,800-7,800 RMB/ton.

Analysis of Production Profit Fluctuations

| Figure 3: Acrylic Emulsion Production Gross Margin Trend (2025-2026) (RMB/ton) |
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| Data Source: Chempricehub Information |

After mid-March, acrylic emulsion production profits rarely turned positive from negative. The peak profit for pure acrylic emulsion reached 427.5 RMB/ton, while for styrene-acrylic emulsion it reached 1,134 RMB/ton. Theoretically, in Q1, the average production profit for pure acrylic emulsion was -141 RMB/ton, with a gross margin of -2.58%; the average production gross profit for styrene-acrylic emulsion was -302 RMB/ton, with a gross margin of -7.88%.

Q2 Outlook: Consolidating at High Levels, Acrylic Emulsion to Fluctuate Narrowly

• Cost Perspective: The operating rates for raw materials like butyl acrylate, MMA, and styrene are expected to remain stable. Combined with good underlying support in the raw material market, raw material prices are likely to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, with significant rises or falls being improbable. This is expected to provide firm support for the acrylic emulsion market.
• Supply and Demand Perspective: In April, downstream industries are still in a phase of transitioning based on rigid demand, with market transactions primarily driven by essential needs. Entering May-June, as the southern rainy season ends and the northern construction peak season arrives, demand from industries like coatings is expected to improve. Downstream inventory willingness may increase, potentially boosting trading activity in the emulsion market.

Overall, acrylic emulsion prices in the second quarter are expected to consolidate within a range, with a high probability of stable market operation.