【Introduction】The surge of refrigerant R507A from approximately 46,000 CNY/ton at the end of 2025 to 59,500 CNY/ton represents a classic case of pricing power shifting to the supply side in the quota era. However, there is an "air gap" between major producers' quoted prices and actual market transactions, reflecting a tug-of-war between producers' determination to control volumes and maintain prices—driven by high channel inventory pressure—and downstream buyers' lack of capacity to absorb these costs.
| Figure 1: Monthly Average Price Comparison of Refrigerants R507A and R22 (2025–2026) (CNY/ton) | Figure 2: Monthly Export Volume and Average Price Comparison of Refrigerants R507A/R404A (2025–2026) (tons, USD/ton) | |
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| Data Source: Chempricehub Information | Data Source: Chempricehub Information |
Although major producers have maintained their quoted prices at a high level of 59,500 CNY/ton, actual market transactions are occurring only in the range of 53,000–54,000 CNY/ton, creating a "scissors gap" of approximately 5,500–6,500 CNY/ton. This price differential implies that:
The rigid constraints of the quota system mean that R143a quota allowances are critically tight. The two main components of R507A are R125, with a quota of 167,600 tons (accounting for 21.0%), and R143a, with a quota of 46,000 tons (accounting for 5.8%). Supply elasticity is extremely limited. It is expected that R507A/R404A prices will remain consolidated at high levels in the second half of the year, and the price spread between R22 and R507A will continue to stay high.
Regarding the cost anchor provided by R125: As R125 constitutes 50% of the R507A formulation, its spot price in East China has remained stable throughout the year at 50,000–55,000 CNY/ton, directly setting the cost floor for R507A. R125 itself is subject to quota restrictions (the 2026 production quota is approximately 167,600 tons, an increase of only about 350 tons year-on-year). Export sources have been long-term tight, and plant operating rates remain low. In September, mainstream quotes for R125 were still around 55,000 CNY/ton, providing fundamental cost support for R507A.
R507A completed a "leap" from 46,000 to 53,000 CNY/ton in 2026. However, several months of stalemate at high levels in the first half of the year reveal a more fundamental signal: the price dividend driven by quotas is approaching the tolerance limit of terminal demand. For industry participants, the core question for R507A's "second half" has shifted from "how much further can prices rise?" to "how long can high prices be sustained?" The price spread exceeding 30,000 CNY/ton between R22 and R507A acts as the "ceiling" for R507A's upward movement. When end-users find that the initial charging cost using R22 is lower than that using R507A, economic considerations will slow down the pace of substitution toward R507A.
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