Introduction: As of May 21, the weekly average price of high-olefin C5 in Northwest China stood at 6,534 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton from the previous cycle’s average, representing an increase of 0.71%.

I. High-Olefin C5 Market Review

Recent international oil prices have declined, mainly due to bearish factors: multiple parties continue to push forward US-Iran peace talks, with both sides still adjusting the content of the peace agreement. Additionally, Iran announced that some vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, easing tensions in the geopolitical situation. In Shandong, the refined oil market saw gains reverse into declines, with local refineries cutting prices to promote sales. However, end-user demand is currently moderate, intermediate traders are cautious with price-locking orders, and downstream users are purchasing on a need-to basis while clearing inventories. Market transactions are mostly small-lot retail deals. In the C5 light fraction market, blended C5 and raffinate oil benefit from favorable supply-demand dynamics, with refineries maintaining firm pricing. Pyrolysis C5 residual liquid prices rose in tandem with blended C5. High-olefin C5 refineries held prices firm while selling, resulting in an average price increase. End-user demand remains moderate, with downstream plants and traders making need-based purchases, and market transaction sentiment is acceptable.

II. Price Comparison of High-Olefin C5 and Related Products

International oil prices have fallen, with the main bearish factors being that multiple parties continue to push US-Iran negotiations forward, with both sides still adjusting the content of the peace agreement. Iran also announced that some vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, easing geopolitical tensions. In Shandong, the refined oil product trend turned from a rise to a fall as local refineries launched price cuts to stimulate sales. However, current end-user demand remains average, intermediate traders are cautious in locking in prices, and downstream users purchase on a need basis while destocking. Market transactions are dominated by small-lot retail deals. In the C5 light fraction segment, blended C5 and raffinate oil benefit from a favorable supply-demand balance, with refineries maintaining firm prices. Pyrolysis C5 residual liquid prices tracked the rise in blended C5. High-olefin C5 refineries held prices firm while shipping, and the average price increased. End-user demand is moderate, with downstream factories and traders purchasing on a demand basis. Market transaction sentiment is acceptable.

III. Market Outlook

Next week, international oil prices are expected to have room to decline, with WTI potentially ranging between $95-102/barrel and Brent between $101-109/barrel. The core logic for the predicted downward trend is that, under the mediation of countries such as Pakistan, the US and Iran continue indirect negotiations and consult on adjusting the peace agreement. Coupled with Iran allowing some vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the geopolitical risk premium is gradually receding, putting overall pressure on oil prices and keeping them weak.

The domestic gasoline and diesel market is expected to decline next week. Some local refineries may further reduce operating rates, leading to some supply contraction. Currently, refineries are operating at a loss. However, the southern region continues to be affected by rainfall in the near term, and "high oil prices" continue to suppress demand. Bearish factors still outweigh bullish ones, so a slight downward trend is expected for domestic gasoline and diesel next week.

The Northwest China high-olefin C5 market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the next period, with a decline of 50-100 yuan/ton. End-user bearish factors still outnumber bullish ones, and the gasoline market shows a downward trend. With bearish sentiment dominating, it is expected that the Northwest China high-olefin C5 market will face near-term downside expectations.