In 2025, EVA capacity expands, demand remains stable but weak, and prices fluctuate widely before declining.

EVA Capacity Continues to Expand in 2025, Supply Remains Ample
In 2025, new domestic EVA capacity continues to come online, with total capacity reaching 3.8 million tons per year by the end of the year. Among these, Hongjing’s two new 200,000-ton production lines will commence operations in February and May 2025, respectively. Lianhong New Materials’ 200,000-ton/year facility is expected to achieve mass production in October 2025, while Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 300,000-ton/year plant will begin trial production in December 2025. Overall, general-purpose EVA is relatively oversupplied in 2025, while photovoltaic-grade EVA (VA ≥ 28%) remains tight.

EVA Demand Shows Strong First Half, Weak Second Half in 2025
Throughout 2025, EVA demand experiences significant fluctuations due to policy rumors, overseas trade, and downstream operating rates. As the largest demand sector for EVA, the photovoltaic industry accounts for approximately 50%–60% of domestic EVA consumption in 2025. Its demand is notably affected by policy expectations, making it the core driver of the EVA industry. From January to October 2025, domestic photovoltaic installations reached 252.87 GW, a year-on-year increase of 39.5%. Among these, new installations from January to May totaled 198 GW, a 150% year-on-year increase, significantly boosting the EVA market in the first half of the year.

EVA foam materials support demand in applications such as footwear and packaging, with the footwear sector being the largest sub-market. In 2025, traditional EVA demand in footwear remains sluggish, while the proportion of high-end footwear applications increases. Additionally, emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and 3D printing show rapid growth in EVA demand, but their small base has limited direct impact on foam EVA. Demand in coating, agricultural film, and packaging sectors accounts for a relatively low proportion and remains stable.

EVA Cost Support Strong in Early 2025, Weakens Later
In 2025, the price of ethylene, a raw material for EVA, fluctuates and declines, while the price of vinyl acetate fluctuates widely. In the first quarter, ethylene prices remain high, and vinyl acetate prices rise, providing strong cost support for EVA. In the second quarter, both ethylene and vinyl acetate prices weaken and decline, reducing EVA cost support. In the third quarter, ethylene prices continue to fall, while vinyl acetate prices rise briefly before declining, further weakening EVA cost support. In the fourth quarter, ethylene prices drop, and vinyl acetate prices rise, providing some cost support for EVA.

EVA Market Experiences Wide Fluctuations Early in 2025, Weakens and Declines Toward Year-End
EVA prices show a fluctuating downward trend in 2025. From January to March, after the Spring Festival, raw material prices rise, downstream foam production increases, a photovoltaic installation rush occurs, and EVA plant maintenance leads to low inventory, pushing EVA prices to a yearly high of 11,566 yuan/ton. From April to July, the traditional off-season for downstream foam production and the end of the photovoltaic installation rush, combined with falling raw material prices and new capacity coming online, cause EVA prices to decline continuously. From August to early September, photovoltaic inventory reduction and raw material support lead to a slight rebound in EVA prices to 11,400 yuan/ton. From October to December, oversupply of photovoltaic-grade EVA, new capacity, and high operating rates pressure EVA prices down to 9,766 yuan/ton.

EVA to Face Worsening Oversupply and Low-Price Fluctuations in 2026
In 2026, new EVA capacity is expected to reach approximately 1.69 million tons per year, leading to oversupply of general-purpose EVA and structural tightness in photovoltaic-grade EVA.

New Domestic EVA Capacity in 2026 (in 10,000 tons)

• Jiangsu Hongjing: 15
• Yulong Island Refining & Chemical: 30
• Zhejiang Petrochemical: 10
• Sinochem Quanzhou: 4
• Yueyang Hunan Petrochemical: 30
• Ningxia Coal Industry: 10
• Guangxi Petrochemical: 30
• Guangxi Huayi Line 1: 20
• Guangxi Huayi Line 2: 20

Domestic Demand Remains Primary, Export Demand Provides Support in 2026
Photovoltaic demand continues to dominate in 2026, but growth may narrow. Against the backdrop of existing policies and a high base, new installations in the first half of 2026 face significant year-on-year pressure, with domestic installation scale likely experiencing its first negative growth in recent years. However, with ongoing efforts to curb "internal competition" and clearer electricity market regulations, new models such as direct green power connections, source-grid-load-storage integration, and green power parks are expected to provide some support for domestic demand.

Although foam EVA demand remains relatively weak in 2025, long-term potential lies in the upgrade of high-end footwear, healthy lifestyles, new energy vehicle interiors, and packaging expansion. The industry is developing high-performance products through technological upgrades, such as EVA with better weather resistance for photovoltaic encapsulant films, indirectly supporting overall demand.

While EVA maintained a net import position in 2025, with imports of 643,800 tons and exports of 279,200 tons from January to November, domestic EVA imports have been declining and exports growing in recent years. In 2026, procurement by photovoltaic module manufacturers in Southeast Asia and India is expected to support further growth in domestic EVA exports.

EVA Costs Likely Stable Early in 2026, Weakening Later
On one hand, domestic ethylene capacity is still expanding, with Dushanzi Petrochemical’s 1.2 million-ton/year Phase II ethylene project in Xinjiang scheduled for commissioning in September 2026. On the other hand, new vinyl acetate facilities are concentrated in 2027–2028, indicating ample supply of EVA raw materials. Additionally, global economic downturn risks keep crude oil prices generally low. Overall, EVA production costs in 2026 are expected to be lower than in 2025 due to raw material fluctuations.

Comprehensive Outlook for 2026
EVA prices are expected to remain stable early in the year, weaken in the middle of the year, and experience a slight rebound toward year-end. Foam EVA prices are projected to fluctuate between 9,800 and 11,500 yuan/ton, while photovoltaic EVA prices will experience larger fluctuations due to policy-related disturbances.