Lead: Progress in US-Iran negotiations has gradually eased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, marginally weakening support for international crude oil prices. Domestically, operating rates for multiple pyrolysis C9 units have been raised, leading to a slight increase in market supply. Downstream C9 petroleum resin and industrial aromatic solvent markets continue to weaken, with industry profits declining concurrently. End-users are primarily purchasing on a rigid demand basis, showing low willingness to enter the market. Under the combined pressure of weak cost support, slightly increased supply, and sluggish downstream demand, pyrolysis C9 offers have narrowly declined this week, while regional prices remain stable. Overall transaction activity has stalled, and the market is expected to continue its weak, range-bound fluctuation in the short term.

Domestic Spot Market: Narrow Decline in National Average Price, Regional Prices Stable
Comparison of Pyrolysis C9 Prices for 2025-2026 (RMB/ton)

Data Source: chempricehub

By region, prices were broadly stable:

Table 1 China Pyrolysis C9 Regional Price Comparison (Unit: RMB/ton)

| Product | Region/Category | Current Period Average | Previous Period Average | Change | Change % | Unit |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| Pyrolysis C9 | Northeast China | 4100 | 4100 | 0 | 0.00% | RMB/ton |
| | North China | 4500 | 4500 | 0 | 0.00% | RMB/ton |
| | East China | 4431 | 4431 | 0 | 0.00% | RMB/ton |
| | Central China | 4400 | 4400 | 0 | 0.00% | RMB/ton |
| | South China | 4398 | 4398 | 0 | 0.00% | RMB/ton |

Data Source: chempricehub

Recently, the domestic pyrolysis C9 market has been generally steady. The national average market price stands at 4458 RMB/ton, down 18 RMB/ton or 0.40% compared to the previous period. Regionally, mainstream regional offers remained firm and stable without significant fluctuation. Average prices across regions were steady, and inter-regional price spreads remained stable. The spread between East China and North China held at 169 RMB/ton, with no cross-regional arbitrage window currently open.

Core Drivers: Three Bearish Factors Converge, Market Fundamentals Weak
Table 2 China Pyrolysis C9 Industry Chain Price Comparison (Unit: RMB/ton)

| Product | Region/Category | 2026/5/14 | 2026/5/21 | Change | Change % | Unit |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| Pyrolysis C9 | National | 4476 | 4458 | -18 | -0.40% | RMB/ton |
| Industrial Aromatic Solvent | East China | 5274 | 5226 | -48 | -0.91% | RMB/ton |
| C9 Petroleum Resin | North China | 6543 | 6323 | -220 | -3.36% | RMB/ton |

Data Source: chempricehub

1. Cost Side: Limited Boost from Rising Crude Oil Average Price, Geopolitical Cooling Weakens Support

This week, the average price of Brent crude oil was $108.68/barrel, up $4.89/barrel or 4.71% week-on-week. However, the boosting effect on the domestic pyrolysis C9 market was limited. From a news perspective, the diplomatic atmosphere around US-Iran negotiations has eased after several twists and turns. Navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually resuming, and concerns over geopolitical supply disruptions continue to cool, offsetting the positive impact of the rising crude oil average price. Concurrently, expectations of Fed interest rate hikes are strengthening, capping the upside for oil prices. Cost-side support for pyrolysis C9 remains only a marginal bottom, insufficient to drive market prices higher.

2. Supply Side: Operating Rates Slightly Increased, Market Supply Gradually Loosens

This week, there were no new shutdowns of pyrolysis C9 units for maintenance domestically. Only Puyang Xintian's unit started up, and Wudi Tongye's unit was shut down. Operating rates for units including Tianjin Zhongsha, Zhonghua Quanzhou, and others were raised, driving a slight increase in industry supply. Pyrolysis C9 output reached 59,300 tons this period, an increase of 600 tons or 1.02% compared to the previous period. Capacity utilization rose to 74.60%, up 0.74 percentage points from the previous period. While units such as Jincheng Petrochemical, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Gulei Petrochemical remain under maintenance, the overall increase in supply still exerts some bearish pressure on the market, leaving supply relatively ample.

3. Demand Side: Downstream Markets Weaken, Profit Margins Fall, Rigid Demand Procurement Weighs on Transactions

The two major downstream products are under pressure simultaneously, providing weak support for pyrolysis C9 raw material demand. The national average price of industrial aromatic solvent was 5226 RMB/ton, down 48 RMB/ton or 0.91% week-on-week. The decline in C9 petroleum resin was more pronounced, with the national average price at 6323 RMB/ton, a sharp drop of 220 RMB/ton or 3.36%.

From a profitability perspective, downstream earnings in the chain are also shrinking: the gross loss for industrial aromatic solvent widened to -428 RMB/ton, down 6.73% week-on-week; the theoretical profit for C9 thermal polymerization petroleum resin fell to 403 RMB/ton, down 105 RMB/ton or a significant 20.67% week-on-week. On the demand side, the restart of Puyang Xintian's C9 petroleum resin unit pushed industry capacity utilization up to 49.12%, but end-user purchasing willingness remains low. Capacity utilization for industrial aromatic solvents held steady at 47.89%. Affected by the gasoline market's initial strength followed by weakness, prices in northern and southern regions showed mixed movements. Overall, downstream companies are clearly resistant to high feedstock prices, maintaining only small-lot replenishment based on rigid demand without any concentrated stockpiling actions. This significantly dampens the trading activity in the pyrolysis C9 market.

Industry Chain Transmission: Intensified Upstream-Downstream Game, Hindered Transmission Pace

This week, the game between upstream and downstream in the pyrolysis C9 industry chain continued to intensify. Weak cost support combined with sluggish downstream demand created a two-way constraint. Feedstock prices consolidated in a narrow range, failing to transmit costs downstream. Downstream product markets were weak, profits shrank, and companies primarily offered concessions to sell, making it difficult to transmit demand benefits upstream.

Among sub-categories, the xylene market performed counter-cyclically stronger, with prices rising in Shandong, East China, and South China, diverging from the trends of pyrolysis C9 and its downstream solvents and resins. The finished oil market at Shandong independent refineries experienced volatile declines, worsening processing losses and lowering operating rates, further hindering the recovery of industrial aromatic solvent demand. The overall industry chain presents a pattern of stable feedstock, falling downstream prices, shrinking profits, and weak transactions. The transmission of prices along the chain is impeded, and the market lacks upward driving force.

Summary and Outlook

In summary, the current pyrolysis C9 market is in a weak position characterized by cooling geopolitical support, slightly increased supply, and persistently sluggish demand. Market participants are predominantly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, making a significant positive breakthrough unlikely in the short term.

Looking ahead to the next week, substantive improvement in market fundamentals is difficult to foresee. On the cost side, international crude oil futures are expected to trend lower, further weakening cost support. On the supply side, unit operating rates are expected to remain high, and the ample supply situation will continue. On the demand side, operating rates for C9 petroleum resin and industrial aromatic solvents are likely to stabilize, but with no concentrated end-user stockpiling support, the pattern of rigid demand procurement is difficult to change, and demand may face mild downward pressure.

The pyrolysis C9 market is expected to continue its weak, range-bound fluctuating trend in the short term. The mainstream price range is estimated to be 4250-4400 RMB/ton. Key factors to watch include developments in Middle East geopolitical tensions, fluctuations in international crude oil prices, downstream unit start-ups/shutdowns, and replenishment rhythm. If crude oil continues to weaken or downstream demand further contracts, there remains downside potential for the pyrolysis C9 market.