【Introduction】The quota system has fundamentally reshaped the pricing logic of refrigerants—shifting the pricing anchor from "production costs" to "quota scarcity." This paradigm shift has transmitted downstream, leading to a "K-shaped" divergence in the chlorinated compounds market, which is deeply tied to refrigerants, while procurement logic has simultaneously transformed.

Table 1: Comparison of Old vs. New Pricing Logics

| Dimension | Pre-Quota (Before 2024) | Post-Quota (2024–Present) |
| :--- | :--- | :--- |
| Pricing Anchor | Upstream raw material costs (fluorspar/hydrofluoric acid) | Quota scarcity + Downstream rigid demand |
| Profit Distribution | Evenly distributed across the industry chain | Highly concentrated in the refrigerant segment |
| Price Fluctuation | Follows cost increases/decreases | Decoupled from costs, driven by supply rigidity |
| Core Characteristic | Cost-driven | Value revaluation-driven |

Source: chempricehub

Currently, in the East China market, the monthly average price of the mainstream refrigerant R22 is ¥17,500/ton, remaining stable month-on-month (MoM). The monthly average price of refrigerant R32 is ¥62,724/ton, up 0.36% MoM. Refrigerant R125 averages ¥54,724/ton, up 0.78% MoM, while refrigerant R134a averages ¥57,948/ton, also up 0.78% MoM.

Table 2: "K-Shaped" Divergence Between Refrigerants and Chlorinated Compounds

| Refrigerant | Post-Quota Trend | Corresponding Chlorinated Compound | Chlorinated Compound Trend | Divergence Type |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| R134a | Strong upward (value scarcity) | Trichloroethylene | Steady follow-up increase | K-shaped upward |
| R32 | High-level operation (intense competition) | Dichloromethane | Cost transmission hindered | K-shaped divergence |
| R22 | High and stable (supply contraction) | Chloroform | Demand shrinkage | K-shaped downward |
| R125 | Passive follow-up increase (substitution pressure) | Tetrachloroethylene | Procurement volume decline | K-shaped downward |

Source: chempricehub

Post-quota, the pricing anchor for refrigerants has shifted to the scarcity of their intrinsic value rather than raw material costs. This prevents upstream chlorinated compounds from "free-riding"—only intermediates for varieties with rigid demand (e.g., R134a) can follow the price increase, while intermediates for varieties affected by substitution or reduction face a "double squeeze" in both volume and price.

Figure: Weekly Spot Price Comparison of Fluorinated Refrigerants in East China, 2026 (¥/ton)

Source: chempricehub

In March 2026, the combined supply of the four mainstream fluorinated refrigerants (R22, R32, R125, R134a) in the East China market increased by 19.59% month-on-month, with an industry average profit of ¥31,193/ton, down slightly by 0.89% MoM. The supply increase was mainly driven by post-holiday resumption of work and expectations for peak season stocking. However, profits were structurally pressured due to rising raw material costs and differences in pricing logic among the varieties.

Table 3: Widespread Raw Material Increases, Varied Profit Performance

| Product | Ex-factory Quotation | Corresponding Raw Material | Raw Material Avg. MoM Change | Theoretical Profit Performance | Profit MoM Change |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| R22 | Firm | Chloroform | +41.38% | Upward | -16.71% |
| R32 | Stable | Dichloromethane | +35.55% | Rising | -1.92% |
| R125 | Stable | Tetrachloroethylene | +26.17% | Rising | +3.98% |
| R134a | Stable | Trichloroethylene | +11.47% | Upward | -0.67% |

Source: chempricehub

R22 experienced the largest profit decline (-16.71%). Despite firm quotations, the 41.38% surge in chloroform severely eroded profits, confirming the "hindered cost transmission" logic. R32 saw a slight profit dip (-1.92%). Although the 35.55% increase in dichloromethane was partially transmitted, companies maintained a relatively high profit base through production control and price support. R125 was the only variety with positive profit growth (+3.98%), benefiting from a relatively moderate increase in tetrachloroethylene and price support from supply contraction expectations. R134a profits remained largely flat (-0.67%), with the smallest increase in trichloroethylene keeping cost pressures manageable and demonstrating the strongest profit resilience.

The average profit for the four mainstream fluorinated refrigerants in the East China market was ¥31,193/ton, down 0.89% MoM. Among key shared cost raw materials, the contract price for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid increased by ¥100/ton in March.

Despite widespread raw material price increases (chlorinated compounds up 11%–41%), most refrigerant ex-factory quotations were merely "stable" or "firm," without significant hikes following costs. This indicates that the pricing anchor has detached from raw material costs, shifting toward quota scarcity and demand rigidity. The varying profit changes among different varieties precisely reflect the micro-level manifestation of the "K-shaped divergence": R125 profits grew against the trend, R22 profits were significantly compressed, while R32 and R134a performed steadily.