In 2025, the MIBK industry was characterized by the core features of "price bottoming, structural differentiation, and pattern reshaping," influenced by the continuous decline in the price of raw material acetone. China further consolidated its global dominance with dual advantages in production capacity and demand. In 2026, the market will bid farewell to the previous downturn and enter a new stage of high-quality development marked by "supply-demand optimization, price recovery, and high-end leadership." The industry's competitive logic will shift from scale expansion to a focus on both quality and efficiency. The annual price trend exhibited a pattern of "stability followed by decline, bottoming out by year-end." At the beginning of the year, supported by the price of raw material acetone, the mainstream transaction price in East China remained at 9,500-9,600 RMB/ton. Starting in April, as acetone prices continued to decline (hitting a five-year low for the year) and supply pressure increased, prices entered a sustained downward trend. The decline accelerated in November and December, with the national average market price at year-end dropping by 27.06% compared to the beginning of the year.

Market Structure: China's Dominance Strengthens, Import-Export Structure Optimizes
Capacity and Supply: China's MIBK production capacity reached 600,000 tons/year in 2025 (accounting for 40% of the global total), concentrated in chemical parks in East China (Jiangsu, Shandong) and North China. Leading enterprises include Wanhua Chemical, Ningbo Zhenyang, and Shandong Jinling. Capacity in Europe and America continued to contract, with the market share of overseas giants falling below 5%. Under-construction and planned capacity exceeds 70,000 tons, with projects such as Sinopec Nanjing Chemical's 45,000-ton and Wanhua Chemical's 30,000-ton facilities advancing, laying the foundation for capacity expansion in 2026.

Demand Structure: Rubber antioxidants remained the largest consumption sector (accounting for over 40%), maintaining steady growth driven by the automotive and construction industries. Surface coatings accounted for nearly 50% of demand. Although electronic-grade MIBK accounted for less than 8% of total demand, its average annual growth rate exceeded 12%, making it a core high-value-added growth driver.

Import-Export Dynamics: Exports exceeded 80,000 tons, primarily flowing to Southeast Asia and South America, with export prices ranging from 1,100-1,300 USD/ton, 13%-17.5% higher than the domestic average price. Imports dropped significantly to 9,200 tons (a year-on-year decrease of 71.43%), mainly concentrated in high-purity electronic-grade products. Import dependency continued to decline, and the industry gradually shifted toward becoming a net exporter.

2026 MIBK Market Development Outlook
(I) Price Outlook: Steady Increase in Price Levels, Structural Opportunities Highlighted
Overall Trend: The annual average price is expected to recover to 8,500-9,000 RMB/ton, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.3%-28.6%. Key drivers include: ① Capacity utilization rising to 75%-80%, alleviating supply-demand imbalances; ② Environmental regulations phasing out small and medium-sized capacity, tightening supply; ③ Increased proportion of high-value-added products such as electronic-grade MIBK lifting the average price.

Fluctuations in acetone prices and substitution by bio-based solvents may still cause short-term price volatility. Close attention should be paid to the phenol-acetone market and crude oil price trends.

(II) Capacity and Competition: Further Concentration, Leading Enterprises Dominate
Capacity Expansion: Projects by Wanhua Chemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical are expected to release approximately 100,000 tons of new capacity, bringing total capacity to an estimated 700,000 tons.

(III) Demand Growth: Steady Growth in Traditional Sectors + Breakthroughs in Emerging Sectors, Clear Incremental Demand
Traditional Sectors: The coatings industry, driven by building renovations and automotive lightweighting, is expected to maintain a growth rate of 3-4%. Rubber antioxidants will continue to grow alongside the upgrading of the tire industry, remaining a core driver. In 2024, rubber antioxidant production reached 451,600 tons, providing stable support for MIBK demand.

Emerging Sectors: Electronic-grade MIBK is accelerating its penetration in semiconductor cleaning and photoresist stripping, with its share expected to rise to 10%. Lithium battery binder additives are being validated by companies such as CATL, creating incremental demand on a scale of tens of thousands of tons. The pharmaceutical intermediates sector benefits from the rise of domestic innovative drugs, with growth rates potentially reaching around 9%.

In 2026, policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods will be strengthened, driving demand in terminal industries such as automobiles and home appliances, indirectly boosting growth in downstream MIBK sectors like coatings and rubber antioxidants.

In 2025, the MIBK industry experienced "price decline and structural reshaping," with China dominating global capacity and demand. Green transformation and high-end development emerged as core themes. Looking ahead to 2026, the industry will enter a new stage characterized by "steady capacity growth, demand differentiation, increased concentration, and price recovery."