According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on January 12, the spot price of lithium carbonate recorded a daily increase of 7.25%. The benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate was 150,000 yuan per ton, up 25% from the beginning of the year, 57% month-on-month, and 90% year-on-year. The benchmark price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 148,000 yuan per ton, up 26% from the beginning of the year, 57% month-on-month, and 94% year-on-year.

Short-Term Price Fluctuation Factors: Policy Buffer Period Drives Demand Growth
On January 9, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued a policy clarifying that the export tax rebate for battery products will be adjusted in two phases: from April 1 to December 31, 2026, the value-added tax export rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6%; starting January 1, 2027, the rebate will be fully abolished, covering key varieties such as lithium-ion batteries, nickel-metal hydride batteries, and all-vanadium redox flow batteries. This policy provides battery enterprises with a nearly three-month buffer period (January to March 2026), and coupled with the retention of a 6% rebate rate during the first phase of adjustment (April to December), the market has formed a clear expectation of a "rush to export." This is driving a short-term expansion in battery production, directly boosting short-term demand for lithium carbonate and is expected to mitigate the traditionally weak demand characteristics of the off-season (January to February).

Long-Term Price Fundamentals Remain the Dominant Factor

1. Supply-Side Constraints: The current operating rate of lithium salt plants is close to 90%, and new smelting capacity is in the ramp-up phase. However, due to high lithium ore prices, insufficient capacity for contract processing, and maintenance at some enterprises, supply in January 2026 is likely to remain flat month-on-month, with limited short-term supply growth.
2. Inventory Dynamics: Although lithium carbonate inventories have seen a slight accumulation, the scale is limited. Downstream enterprises have insufficient raw material inventories, creating a restocking demand. If the rush-to-export demand exceeds expectations, inventories may enter a destocking phase again, further strengthening the upward momentum of prices.
3. Market Sentiment and Capital Influence: The correlation between lithium carbonate futures and spot prices is as high as 0.99, and speculative capital demand significantly impacts short-term prices. The market currently maintains a clear long-term bullish outlook on lithium prices, with open interest in the main contract remaining high.
4. Sustained Strong Demand: The underlying logic of demand growth in energy storage and new energy vehicles remains unchanged, which will provide core support for lithium prices. Factors such as the advancement of domestic electricity market reforms, strong overseas demand for conventional energy storage, and the expansion of global data center construction will continue to drive growth in energy storage battery orders, thereby boosting demand for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and providing stable incremental consumption for lithium carbonate.

Business Society Lithium Carbonate Data Analyst's Perspective:
The adjustment policy for battery export tax rebates has impacted lithium carbonate prices. The rush-to-export demand triggered by the policy buffer period, combined with low inventory levels, will drive lithium carbonate prices to remain strong. The 150,000 yuan per ton threshold may serve as a short-term support level. In the medium to long term, the export cost pressure resulting from the abolition of tax rebates will suppress some demand. However, the rigid growth demand from energy storage and new energy vehicles, along with the industry's tight supply-demand balance, will continue to provide core support for lithium prices, limiting the potential for significant price declines.