Lead: The average weekly prices of the four mainstream refrigerant models—R22, R32, R125, and R134a—stood at RMB 23,500/MT, RMB 64,500/MT, RMB 55,000/MT, and RMB 64,000/MT, respectively, all flat from the prior week. With prices across all four mainstream models holding steady, market sentiment remains largely wait-and-see.
The current supply-demand landscape in the refrigerant market is relatively stable. Supply-side constraints under the quota policy are underpinning prices, but downstream demand has weakened on a phase-by-phase basis. In the near term, prices are expected to remain broadly stable, with some models potentially seeing minor adjustments.
According to data from Industrial Online, household air conditioner production is scheduled at 10.73 million units, down 6.23% year-on-year and 23.08% month-on-month. Domestic sales production is scheduled at 5.87 million units, down 12.84% year-on-year and 33.14% month-on-month. Export production is scheduled at 4.86 million units, flat year-on-year and down 32.59% month-on-month. Weighed down by weak end-user demand, market buying sentiment is poor. Major fluorochemical refrigerant producers continue to uphold a high-value positioning for their products, keeping offers firm and defending prices at elevated levels. Turning to market supply and demand, supply-side data for fluorochemical refrigerants has edged lower recently. Producers and distribution channels are strictly managing inventory to avoid accumulation risks. End-market inventories have largely bottomed out, yet the willingness to stock up remains low, with procurement mainly driven by essential needs. Some small-package market offers have been adjusted, with deliveries made against orders. At present, secondary distribution channels in the fluorochemical refrigerant market are keeping inventories under control without significant stockpiling, actively tracking the moves of major producers and adjusting their shipment pace accordingly.
From the supply side, HFCs refrigerant supply remains persistently constrained under the quota policy. The current supply-demand structure in the refrigerant market is relatively stable—quota policy restrictions on supply support prices, but the phase-by-phase softening in downstream demand suggests prices will hold steady in the short term, though some models may see minor adjustments. Producers are manufacturing in line with their quotas, and the industry's overall operating rate remains at a medium level. R32 plants are running at around 50% capacity, R125 operating rates are on the low side, and R134a plants are operating at roughly 60% capacity. Regarding overseas demand, export quota controls remain in place under the quota policy, and export volumes are expected to stay stable.
Overall, the refrigerant market is expected to remain largely stable in the coming period. Downside price risk is limited given the support from the quota policy, but weakening demand may exert pressure on certain models.
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