The tight supply situation remains unresolved, and the acetone market continues its upward trend.

Lead:
Recently, the domestic acetone market has staged a sharp rally. In East China, acetone prices climbed from 6,225 yuan/ton at the end of July to 7,075 yuan/ton on August 24, with holders' enthusiasm for pushing up prices continuing to intensify. The core driver behind this market movement is the phased tightening on the supply side, compounded by concerns that typhoon weather would disrupt shipping schedules. The contraction in domestic spot supply has laid the foundation for the acetone market's rise.

(1) Low domestic unit operating rates keep supply tight
Since July, domestic phenol-acetone units have entered a concentrated turnaround period, with industry capacity utilization once dropping to a low of 66.53%. Acetone output in July stood at approximately 253,600 tons, down 12.13% month-on-month, representing an acetone production loss of more than 100,000 tons. In August, although Chang Chun Chemical and Longjiang Chemical brought their units back online in succession, units operated by Taihua Xingye, Wanhua Chemical and Shandong Fuyu were successively shut down for maintenance, keeping overall operating loads at relatively low levels and creating a phased gap in domestic supply.

(2) Typhoon delays cargo arrivals; port inventories continue to decline
Affected by typhoon weather, navigation in East China waters and port operations were restricted, leading to a concentrated wave of delays in the arrival of imported cargoes. According to vessel schedule data compiled by Chempricehub, actual port arrivals in early and mid-August were extremely limited. East China port inventories continued to be drawn down, and as of August 24, the Jiangyin port inventory had fallen to 9,000 tons.

Table 1 Incomplete statistics of East China acetone cargoes in transit (unit: ton)

Source: Chempricehub

According to incomplete vessel-tracking statistics from Chempricehub, as of August 24, the total August acetone cargo volume for East China stood at 22,300 tons, of which 15,000 tons had arrived and 7,300 tons were still in transit. Subsequent shipping movements warrant close monitoring.

(3) Zhejiang Petrochemical cargo delays intensify spot tightness
The postponement of Zhejiang Petrochemical's cargo deliveries due to weather and logistics factors has further intensified the tightness of circulating spot supply. According to statistics, 4,900 tons of cargo are scheduled to arrive at the Jiangyin storage area this weekend. Against this tightening supply backdrop, holders have shown a strong inclination to withhold sales and push prices up, with offer levels moving steadily higher. Some downstream plants have followed up with replenishment for rigid demand, and market trading sentiment has improved, jointly supporting the upward shift in the acetone price center.

(4) Outlook
The recent rise in the acetone market has been driven more by short-term supply-side tightness than by a broad recovery in end-user demand. As imported and domestic trade cargoes arrive in succession later this month and unit operating rates gradually recover, the tight spot supply situation is expected to ease, and the risk of a pullback should not be overlooked. Although the short-term momentum remains strong, concerns over the acetone market from late August to early September persist. With acetone prices at elevated levels and most downstream sectors mired in losses, the headroom for further upside may be limited. Overall, supported by extremely low inventories in late August, acetone prices are prone to rise rather than fall and are likely to remain firm at high levels over the near term. That said, given the need to assess downstream demand absorption capacity and the potential supply recovery, chasing the rally warrants caution. As cargoes arrive in succession by the end of August, close attention should be paid to inflection signals indicating the supply side shifting from tight to loose.