2025 Price Trend
According to data from Business Society, the average market price of urea was 1,798 RMB/ton on January 1 and 1,725 RMB/ton on December 31, representing a full-year decline of 4.08% in domestic urea prices for 2025. The annual high occurred on March 31 at 1,997 RMB/ton, while the annual low was recorded on October 21 at 1,570 RMB/ton.

2025 Market Analysis
The domestic urea market in 2025 experienced mixed fluctuations, primarily characterized by volatile movements.

Phase 1 (January–March): Urea Market Consolidation and Rise
Urea prices declined in January due to ample market supply and weak downstream demand. After the Spring Festival, domestic urea demand began to increase. Prices rose in February and March, driven by the peak spring farming season, which boosted agricultural demand, alongside growing industrial demand, leading to improved market transactions.

Phase 2 (April–October): Urea Market Weakness and Decline
From April to June, urea prices fluctuated downward. Market supply remained sufficient, and inventories stayed high. Spring farming demand gradually slowed, and downstream procurement turned cautious. Compound fertilizer enterprises reduced operating rates, weakening urea procurement demand.

From July to October, urea prices accelerated their decline. Poor performance in the futures market dragged down spot prices. Autumn urea demand entered a low season, and market trading activity weakened.

Phase 3 (November–December): Urea Market Strength and Rise
In November and December, urea futures strengthened, and spot prices followed suit. Positive factors such as exports and a new round of Indian tenders boosted market optimism. Daily urea production remained high, maintaining supply pressure. After the Phosphorus Compound Conference, winter fertilizer storage demand began to advance, increasing downstream raw material procurement and enhancing market trading activity.

Based on the 2025 monthly K-bar chart, the largest monthly increase occurred in February, with a rise of 8.63%. The largest monthly decline was in April, with a drop of 6.02%.

2026 Outlook Forecast

Supply Situation
In 2025, China's urea capacity and production reached new highs. Urea capacity is expected to reach 75.19 million tons, with a net increase of 6.6 million tons for the year. Total production is projected at 71 million tons, up 7.9% year-on-year, driven by capacity expansion and higher operating rates.

In 2026, urea capacity is expected to reach 88.06 million tons. New capacity will mainly come from coal-based urea, while gas-based urea expansion will be limited due to natural gas supply constraints and cost pressures. Urea production is forecasted at around 74.85 million tons, showing an overall growth trend. High inventory levels have become the norm in the urea industry.

The average industry operating rate is expected to remain above 80% in 2026, with coal-based urea operating rates as high as 89.6%. Daily urea production during the peak spring farming season is expected to exceed 220,000–230,000 tons, with an annual average daily production of 190,000–200,000 tons.

Demand Situation
In 2025, China's urea demand is projected at 65.5 million tons, an increase of about 1 million tons from the previous year.

• Agricultural demand: Expected to reach 42 million tons, up about 1 million tons year-on-year. Fertilizer demand during the autumn and winter planting seasons is estimated at 13.646 million tons, including 6.57 million tons of nitrogen fertilizer.
• Non-agricultural demand: Expected to remain stable at 23.5 million tons in physical terms. Demand in industrial denitrification is steadily expanding, driven by ultra-low emission upgrades in thermal power, steel, and cement industries, promoting urea as a substitute for liquid ammonia.

In 2026, China's urea demand is forecasted at around 66 million tons. Agriculture will remain the main driver of urea consumption, with demand expected to reach 42.5 million tons, growing at 4–5%. This growth is supported by expanded sown areas, saline-alkali land remediation, high-standard farmland construction, and urea's price advantage. Industrial demand is projected at 23.5 million tons, with limited growth.

Import and Export Situation
In 2025, China's urea import tariff quota totaled 3.3 million tons, including 2.97 million tons for state trading and 330,000 tons for non-state trading. From January to November 2025, China's total urea exports reached 4.6163 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 94.38%, setting a historical record. The full-year total may exceed 5 million tons.

In 2025, China's urea exports were mainly concentrated in Asia and South America, with Vietnam, India, Chile, and Malaysia as the major trading partners.

In 2026, the quota system is expected to be relaxed, and export volumes are likely to continue increasing. Urea exports are projected to range between 5 million and 8 million tons, depending on the extent of export policy liberalization. Import volumes will remain low, forming an overall pattern of "export expansion and stable imports."

Futures Market
In 2025, the urea futures market showed a "first decline, then rise" trend, with annual volatility narrowing to 22.45%, reflecting significant policy regulation effects. Supply and price stabilization policies suppressed market fluctuations, reducing futures volatility by 10.69 percentage points compared to 2024.

In 2026, the urea futures market is expected to follow a "first rise, then decline, with range-bound fluctuations" pattern. The main contract price is projected to fluctuate between 1,550 and 1,950 RMB/ton.

Summary and Outlook
In 2026, China's urea market is expected to exhibit a "first rise, then decline, with range-bound fluctuations" trend, with annual prices likely fluctuating between 1,500 and 2,000 RMB/ton. Capacity expansion will continue, agricultural demand will remain stable with slight growth, industrial demand will be weak, and exports will become a key variable.

Adjustments to export policy quotas represent the greatest uncertainty, while policy regulation will continue to suppress market volatility. Overall, market fluctuations will be significantly influenced by policies and supply-demand dynamics. It is advisable to closely monitor export policies and price trends.