Introduction: As of April 9, the price of mixed C5 in the Shandong market was RMB 6,640/tonne, a decrease of RMB 390/tonne or 5.55% compared to RMB 7,030/tonne the previous week. The average price in the East China market was RMB 6,620/tonne, down RMB 230/tonne or 3.56% week-on-week.

I. Mixed C5 Market Prices Experienced Volatile Declines Over the Past Week

Domestic spot prices for mixed C5 in Shandong fluctuated downward. Influenced by market news, refineries lowered mixed C5 prices to stimulate shipments. High crude oil costs limited the extent of the decline. Sentiment among industry participants was weak, with traders and downstream plants adopting a more cautious, wait-and-see approach, leading to limited trading activity during the week.

As of April 9, the price of mixed C5 in the Shandong market was RMB 6,640/tonne, a decrease of RMB 390/tonne or 5.55% compared to RMB 7,030/tonne the previous week. The average price in the East China market was RMB 6,620/tonne, down RMB 230/tonne or 3.56% week-on-week.

II. International Oil Price Retreat Weakens Bottom Support for Mixed C5

International crude oil prices fell, with average prices showing mixed movements. As of April 8, WTI was priced at $94.41/barrel, down 15.36% from April 2; Brent was priced at $94.75/barrel, down 13.10% from April 2. The significant drop in international oil prices this week was primarily driven by bearish factors, notably the two-week temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, which abruptly eased geopolitical tensions and weakened support for oil prices.

III. Decline in Gasoline Market Drags Down Mixed C5 from the Demand Side

Refined oil product prices in Shandong weakened. Refineries in the region lowered prices to promote sales. However, post-holiday terminal demand remained subdued, inventory drawdowns at social units were slow, and procurement enthusiasm among midstream and downstream players was low, making large-volume transactions difficult to find. Prices for gasoline and diesel at independent refineries in Shandong fluctuated downward, with 92# gasoline at RMB 8,947/tonne, down RMB 229/tonne or 2.50% week-on-week.

IV. Short-Term Market Dynamics Unchanged, Wide Fluctuations to Become Norm

Crude Oil Outlook: International oil prices are expected to have room for further decline next week, with WTI potentially trading in the range of $88-105/barrel and Brent in the range of $90-105/barrel. The core logic for the price forecast hinges on the US-Iran two-week temporary ceasefire agreement, with a key focus on the progress of face-to-face negotiations in Islamabad on April 10. If the parties reach a preliminary framework, Middle East geopolitical risks will cool down temporarily, further weakening support for oil prices.

Demand Outlook: Gasoline demand shows a downward trend, while diesel demand remains relatively stable, supported by spring farming activities. In the short term, bearish market signals are relatively dominant, suggesting that gasoline and diesel prices may still retreat from recent highs.

Mixed C5 Outlook: The domestic mixed C5 market is expected to decline initially and then stabilize next week. Although terminal markets currently show no significant procurement demand, high upstream costs continue to provide some bottom support for mixed C5. Prices are anticipated to follow a pattern of initial decline followed by stabilization. Market participants should monitor the progress of US-Iran negotiations.