On January 3, 2026, local time, the United States military launched a large-scale military strike against Venezuela, codenamed "Absolute Resolve," severely damaging the country's critical crude oil export hub, the Port of La Guaira. As a globally significant supplier of heavy crude oil, Venezuela's crude oil supply chain has been plunged into major uncertainty, triggering a chain reaction in global energy and chemical markets. International oil price volatility has increased significantly, directly impacting refineries in Asia and Europe that rely on Venezuelan heavy crude. According to U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Cain, the operation was planned over several months, involving over 150 fighter jets and numerous drones launched from 20 bases in a surprise attack, ultimately resulting in the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife. Venezuelan Vice President and Oil Minister Delcy Rodríguez confirmed that the attack caused multiple military and civilian casualties. The Venezuelan Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement strongly condemning the U.S. military aggression.

Although Venezuela's state-owned oil company, PDVSA, stated in a preliminary assessment that major oil production and refining facilities were not targeted and operations remain normal, the damage to the Port of La Guaira has dealt a severe blow to the already fragile Venezuelan oil industry. Public data shows that PDVSA's refining facilities were already operating at low capacity due to aging infrastructure and labor shortages, with its four main refineries processing only 350,000 barrels per day. Venezuela currently exports 800,000 to 900,000 barrels of crude oil per day, primarily to Asia and the Caribbean, and the shutdown of the Port of La Guaira has directly halted its crude oil exports.

As the country with the world's largest proven crude oil reserves (approximately 300 billion barrels), Venezuela's changing situation has raised dual concerns in the market regarding supply. In the short term, the country's heavy crude oil production heavily relies on imported diluents, and the instability may hinder diluent supply, further widening the global heavy crude oil deficit. In the long term, uncertainty surrounds production capacity recovery—Venezuela's crude oil output has significantly declined from its peak of 3 million barrels per day, requiring substantial capital investment to recover. If the current situation leads to the withdrawal of foreign capital, development progress will be delayed. However, if stability attracts the return of international capital, energy companies such as Chevron may accelerate the restart of investment projects.

The global energy and chemical industry chain has already felt significant impacts. The International Energy Agency (IEA) had previously lowered its 2026 global oil supply forecast due to sanctions against Russia and Venezuela, and the escalation of the situation may lead to further revisions. Global refining and chemical companies are generally facing dual pressures from oil price volatility and raw material shortages, with refineries in Asia and Europe heavily reliant on Venezuelan heavy crude being the most directly affected. Some companies may be forced to reduce or halt production, subsequently affecting the stability of downstream chemical market supplies. Among them, Chinese independent refineries are particularly impacted, as they accounted for 50%–70% of Venezuela's crude oil exports in 2025 and are now urgently evaluating alternative feedstock options.

Notably, despite the escalation of geopolitical conflict, the current fundamentals of global oversupply and weak demand in the crude oil market have prevented a sharp surge in oil prices. Data shows that on January 2, WTI February futures fell 0.2% to $57.32 per barrel, while Brent March futures fell 0.2% to $60.75 per barrel. Institutions generally predict that Brent crude prices may rise by only $1 to $2 in the short term, with a potential slight decline for the week. The market is more focused on medium- to long-term supply growth potential. Former U.S. President Trump has stated that American oil companies will invest billions of dollars to rebuild Venezuela's energy industry. If sanctions are lifted and investments materialize, Venezuela's medium-term crude oil exports could recover to 3 million barrels per day, further exacerbating the oversupply situation.

In response to the supply chain shock, global chemical companies are actively taking measures. Some have initiated contingency plans, mitigating risks by seeking alternative feedstocks and adjusting production processes. However, process adjustments are time-consuming and increase costs, squeezing corporate profit margins. In terms of alternatives, heavy crude from Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE could partially fill the gap, but process adjustments are required to address differences in sulfur and metal content. Crude from Canadian oil sands and Brazilian pre-salt oil may increase exports to Asia, but limited pipeline and port infrastructure constrain incremental supply. This suggests that the trans-Pacific heavy oil trade pattern formed over the past decade may face restructuring.

Market analysis suggests that short-term volatility in the global energy market will persist, with the progress of repairs at the Port of La Guaira, facility operational status, and industry cooperation trends becoming key influencing factors. This event also underscores the importance of diversifying feedstock supplies in the refining and chemical industries. In the future, global energy and chemical companies may accelerate supply chain optimization by expanding import channels and enhancing alternative feedstock processing capabilities to strengthen resilience against geopolitical fluctuations. Additionally, OPEC+ will hold a meeting soon to discuss crude oil production policies, and its decisions will further influence the direction of the global energy market.