I. Price Trend
According to the Business Society Commodity Market Analysis System: On January 16, 2025, the average price was 1,391 yuan/ton. Currently, coking enterprises are operating weakly, with high inventory levels and ample overall market supply. Steel mills' profit recovery remains limited.
II. Market Analysis
Price Performance: On January 16, the price of metallurgical coke in the Handan market remained stable. The current quotation for quasi-first-grade dry-quenched coke is 1,495–1,525 yuan/ton, and for quasi-first-grade wet-quenched coke is 1,340 yuan/ton, both ex-factory prices including cash and tax. On January 16, the price of metallurgical coke in the Jinzhong market remained stable. The current quotation for quasi-first-grade wet-quenched metallurgical coke is 1,260–1,280 yuan/ton, for quasi-first-grade dry-quenched metallurgical coke is 1,525–1,550 yuan/ton, and for first-grade dry-quenched metallurgical coke is 1,525–1,675 yuan/ton, all ex-factory prices including cash and tax. On January 16, the price of metallurgical coke in the Tangshan market remained stable. The current mainstream market transaction price for tamped first-grade dry-quenched coke is 1,680 yuan/ton, and for top-charged first-grade dry-quenched coke is 1,750 yuan/ton, both ex-factory prices including cash and tax.
Demand Analysis: Seasonal Weakening: As the year-end approaches, steel demand has weakened seasonally, with pig iron output from blast furnaces continuing to decline. The support from rigid demand for coke is significantly weaker. Supply-Demand Dynamics Easing: With supply increasing and demand decreasing, the supply-demand balance for coke is easing, putting continued pressure on prices.
Supply Analysis: Coking Coal Prices: Raw material coking coal is expected to remain in a tight balance, with potential high-price operations in the second and fourth quarters. Cost pressure on the coke production side persists. Profit Margins: Coking profits are expected to remain in a loss-making state, with coking enterprises showing weak production intentions. Operating rates are expected to remain at moderate levels.
III. Future Outlook
Business Society coke analysts believe: In the short term, coke prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range with a weak bias, lacking upward momentum.
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