Tight Supply Stabilizes the Market; Raw Salt Prices Expected to Remain Stable in the Short Term (Sept 18–24, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

1. Production: Sea salt production remained relatively stable, with some enterprises beginning the autumn harvest ("qiu ba"). Sea salt inventories are at low levels, suggesting potential supply increases in the future. In Shandong, two well-mined salt units that were previously under maintenance have resumed normal operation. Well-mined salt inventories are not high, and enterprises exhibit a bullish sentiment regarding price hikes. Import salt landed prices remain at high levels, causing the downward trend in domestic salt prices to moderate, though the downtrend persists. Downstream chlor-alkali enterprises' procurement activity has been generally moderate, with limited supplementary supply from imported salt.

2. During this week (September 18–24, 2026), the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese sample caustic soda enterprises with capacities of 100,000 tons or more was 78.7%, up by 0.5% week-on-week. Two chlor-alkali units shut down for maintenance during the week, while four units restarted. By region, chlor-alkali loads declined in Northwest, Central China, and Northeast China, while they increased in North China, East China, South China, and Southwest China. Specifically, Shandong's chlor-alkali load stood at 82.1% this week, up by 1.8% week-on-week. Looking ahead to next week, two chlor-alkali units are scheduled for maintenance and four for restarts; the national chlor-alkali load is projected to recover to approximately 80.0%.

3. During this week (September 18–24, 2026), the comprehensive capacity utilization rate for soda ash was 73.83%, compared to 70.26% last week, an increase of 3.57 percentage points week-on-week. Among these, the ammonia-soda process capacity utilization was 69.28%, down by 2.02 percentage points week-on-week; and the combined production capacity utilization was 62.71%, down by 1.18 percentage points week-on-week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 major enterprises with annual capacities of one million tons or more was 81.44%, up by 4.77 percentage points week-on-week.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Weekly Price Change Table for Domestic Crude Salt Market

Unit: CNY/ton

The downward trend in crude salt prices slowed during the week. Sea salt prices in Shandong decreased slightly by approximately 5 yuan/ton. Some sea salt harvesting ("autumn scraping") began in major production areas, leading to an expected increase in sea salt supply. Sea salt producers are actively shipping goods, primarily focusing on inventory depletion. In North China, two well-mined salt enterprises that had undergone prior maintenance have resumed operations, increasing supply. Previously, inventory levels hit bottom with balanced production and sales. As the fourth quarter approaches, demand for edible salt and small-scale industrial salt is rising, keeping mine salt inventories at low levels, which has led some enterprises to anticipate price hikes. In East China, well-mined salt prices are trending slightly downward, but the decline has significantly slowed compared to previous periods. High-price transactions are extremely rare; intensified market competition has led to weaker actual transaction volumes, with downstream chlor-alkali enterprises purchasing based on rigid demand. Mine salt prices in Central China remained stable; although quotes for refined dry salt rose, fluctuations in bulk wet salt prices were minimal. Crude salt prices in Northwest China were relatively stable. Maintenance at enterprises in Gansu and Ningxia continues, with no short-term plans for resumption. Demand for crude salt remains low, and prices for well-mined salt and lake salt in the Northwest region held steady.

China's crude salt imports in August 2026 totaled 1.016 million tons, up 14.32% month-on-month and 21.08% year-on-year, with an average import price of USD 35.4/ton. Cumulative imports from January to August 2026 amounted to 8.191 million tons, a decrease of 11.5% year-on-year. The average landed price of imported salt in August was USD 35.4/ton, up USD 1.1/ton from USD 34.3/ton in the same period last year. Landed prices for imported salt have remained at high levels with a gradual upward trend, influenced by rising international oil prices. Meanwhile, domestic crude salt prices are trending downward. Sea salt suppliers are eager to ship due to sufficient supply and the approaching autumn harvest. Although some well-mined salt enterprises underwent maintenance, reducing supply, price hikes remain difficult, so prices have largely stabilized. Regarding imported salt procurement, downstream chlor-alkali enterprises purchase as needed. Chlor-alkali enterprises in North China mix imported salt with domestic crude salt after procurement.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

4. North China: Prices for 32% liquid caustic soda in the Shandong region continued to show mixed trends this week. In the Luxi (West Shandong) area, market prices continued to slide due to pressure from lower prices in surrounding regions. As of today's close, market prices returned to 640. Staged low prices in Southwest Shandong stimulated transactions, leading to slight local price adjustments. In Southern Shandong, prices remained stable following hikes in late last week, with the market adopting a wait-and-see approach; however, sentiment remained cautious, and large-volume deals are currently under negotiation. In Central Shandong, localized supply reductions prompted slight price increases, but the stimulus effect on 32% caustic soda was limited, and overall upward momentum remained cautious. Northern Shandong prices remained stable. Price trends in Hebei were also inconsistent; Hengshui maintained firm prices, while Cangzhou saw continuous declines in the price center due to increased local commodity volumes and pressure from neighboring markets.

5. Soda Ash: This week, the domestic soda ash market trended towards stability, with transaction pace slowing. According to Chempricehub data monitoring, domestic soda ash output during the week was 703,200 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons week-on-week, representing a rise of 5.08%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 73.83%, up 3.57 percentage points from 70.26% last week. Maintenance shutdowns gradually resumed, boosting supply. Total soda ash inventory at manufacturers stood at 1.8058 million tons, down 25,300 tons from Monday (-1.38%) and down 83,000 tons from last Thursday (-4.39%). Pre-holiday shipment increases and order execution led to inventory reductions at some enterprises.

6. Next Week Market Forecast

Crude salt prices in September are expected to continue a slow downward trend. Supply of compliant-grade salt is relatively ample, and new salt from the end-of-month autumn harvest will gradually enter the market, with salt enterprises prioritizing shipments. Well-mined salt enterprises recovering from maintenance will lead to a simultaneous increase in mine salt supply. However, due to rising coal costs, the downside room for mine salt prices is limited. Landed prices for imported salt will remain at high levels, and enterprises maintain a wait-and-see attitude with low procurement enthusiasm. In North China, well-mined salt inventories may face short-term tightness due to enterprise faults or maintenance, making further significant price cuts unlikely. As the sea salt autumn harvest progresses and salt enterprises become more active in shipping, a minor price decline of within 5 yuan for crude salt cannot be ruled out.