Introduction: The uncertainty surrounding the restoration of pyrolysis C9 feedstock supply in April persists due to ongoing plant maintenance and fluctuating operating rates. High international crude oil prices provide a firm cost floor, and tight supply continues, offering sustained upward price support. However, intensified downstream resistance to high-priced feedstock has led to a procurement stalemate. The market exhibits a weak equilibrium characterized by "strong costs, tight supply, and weak demand," with short-term prices expected to consolidate at high levels.

Domestic Spot Market Reaction
Recently, the domestic pyrolysis C9 market continued its upward trend, driven by both cost support and supply contraction. Downstream buyers showed limited willingness to chase higher prices, primarily making purchases based on rigid demand, leading to a stalemate in market transactions.

Data from chempricehub shows the national average price for pyrolysis C9 this period was RMB 6,538/tonne, an increase of RMB 196/tonne or 3.09% compared to the previous period's RMB 6,342/tonne. Regionally, prices at major suppliers in East China were raised to RMB 6,600/tonne, up RMB 200/tonne week-on-week. Prices in Northeast, North, Central, and South China also increased by RMB 200-250/tonne, with mainstream transaction ranges between RMB 6,550-6,800/tonne. International crude oil prices strengthened significantly due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with the weekly average Brent crude price at $110.57/barrel, up $5.52/barrel or 5.25% week-on-week, providing solid cost support for pyrolysis C9 and reinforcing producers' strong pricing intentions.

Industrial Chain Value Transmission Remains Manageable
Pyrolysis C9 supply continues to tighten, with no supplementary import cargoes available, leading to a sustained contraction in market circulation. Recent production was 56,100 tonnes, a decrease of 2,900 tonnes or 4.92% compared to the previous period. Industry capacity utilization fell to 70.62%, down 3.58 percentage points. Multiple cracking units, including those at Gulei Petrochemical, Shell Phase II, and Lanzhou Petrochemical, are undergoing maintenance or are temporarily shut down. Several ethylene units are also operating at reduced rates. The total capacity under maintenance amounts to 507,000 tonnes, further exacerbating the tight supply situation. Entering April, maintenance at the Lanzhou Petrochemical unit continues, and many other plants maintain low operating rates with no clear restart plans. The timeline for feedstock supply recovery remains uncertain, making a phase of ample supply unlikely. The supply side continues to provide favorable support for prices.

Downstream Procurement Stalemate Amid Strong Resistance to High Prices
The dual strength of cost and supply has not spurred a demand recovery. Downstream purchasing remains deadlocked, with significant resistance to high-priced feedstock, leading to a transactional stalemate in the market.

• Industrial Aromatic Solvents: The national average price this period was RMB 6,832/tonne, down RMB 97/tonne or 1.40% from the previous period. Prices rose initially at the week's start on restocking expectations but weakened later as gasoline prices fell and crude oil fluctuated. Gross losses widened to -RMB 1,216/tonne, with purchases limited to essential restocking.
• C9 Petroleum Resin: The national average price was RMB 8,309/tonne, up RMB 187/tonne or 2.30% from the previous period. Producers raised offers following feedstock costs, but terminal acceptance was limited, leading to flexible negotiations on actual transactions. Theoretical profit was RMB 211/tonne, showing a slight decrease week-on-week. Capacity utilization dropped to 41.30%, with some producers reducing output, indicating further demand weakness.

Overall, inquiry sentiment in downstream non-fuel sectors has cooled due to crude oil volatility, increasing wait-and-see attitudes and significantly dampening purchasing enthusiasm. The market is characterized by a stalemate where "high prices deter transactions, and low prices find no available supply."

Summary and Outlook
The current pyrolysis C9 market is characterized by uncertain feedstock supply recovery in April, high-cost support, and a downstream procurement stalemate. Supply contraction and the cost floor provide upward support, but insufficient downstream demand absorption limits further price increases, maintaining a weak equilibrium at high levels. Looking ahead, plant maintenance and low operating rates are expected to continue, with the timing of feedstock supply recovery remaining uncertain. On the cost side, international crude oil prices, influenced by the Middle East situation, are expected to remain volatile with an upward bias, sustaining strong cost support. Downstream, suppressed by high prices, pre-holiday stocking for the Qingming Festival is limited, with demand primarily rigid and lacking momentum to chase rising prices. chempricehub forecasts that pyrolysis C9 prices in April will mainly consolidate at high levels, with potential for minor fluctuations. The mainstream price range is expected to be RMB 6,200-6,600/tonne, where upward support remains effective and downside space is limited.