Lead: The recent repeated geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have continued to disrupt the international crude oil market. Brent crude oil prices have slightly declined, weakening the cost support for cracked C9. While increased maintenance of domestic units has led to a slight contraction in supply, the downstream C9 petroleum resin sector is facing declining profitability and weak purchasing sentiment. In contrast, the industrial aromatic solvent market has bucked the trend and moved higher. With a clear tug-of-war between cost and demand, the overall market prices show stability with minor fluctuations and regional divergence, with the market trend continuing its weak and volatile tone.

Domestic Spot Market: National Average Price Edges Down, Regional Prices Remain Stable
Price Comparison of Cracked C9, 2025–2026 (CNY/ton)

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Data source: chempricehub

This week, the domestic market for industrial cracked C9 remained broadly stable with minor adjustments and regional divergence. The national average mainstream price edged down slightly week-on-week. Under the multiple influences of repeated geopolitical uncertainties, weakening crude oil prices, and persistently sluggish downstream demand, market transactions were僵持 (deadlocked). The short-term market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern:

Table 1: Regional Price Comparison for Cracked C9 (Unit: CNY/ton)

| Product | Region/Category | This Period Average | Previous Period Average | Change | Change % | Unit |
|-------------|-----------------|--------------------|------------------------|--------|----------|---------|
| Cracked C9 | Northeast China | 3800 | 3900 | -100 | -2.56% | CNY/ton |
| | North China | 4400 | 4500 | -100 | -2.22% | CNY/ton |
| | East China | 4362 | 4362 | 0 | 0.00% | CNY/ton |
| | Central China | 4400 | 4400 | 0 | 0.00% | CNY/ton |
| | South China | 4430 | 4430 | 0 | 0.00% | CNY/ton |

Data source: chempricehub

From the spot price perspective, the national average price for cracked C9 this period was 4,446 CNY/ton, down 21 CNY/ton from the previous period, a decline of 0.47%. Regional performance showed significant differences: prices in Northeast China and North China each dropped by 100 CNY/ton, with Northeast China quoting 3,800 CNY/ton and North China quoting 4,400 CNY/ton. Prices in East China, Central China, and South China remained stable, with Sinopec East China's ex-factory price holding at 4,362 CNY/ton, which will be maintained until June 24, simultaneously locking in the monthly settlement price. Currently, the price spread between East China and North China has narrowed to 38 CNY/ton. Multiple units in the region are under maintenance, leading to limited cross-regional cargo movement, and the arbitrage window has not opened.

Core Drivers: Triple Negative Factors Converge, Weakening Market Fundamentals
Table 2: Price Comparison of China's Cracked C9 Industry Chain (Unit: CNY/ton)

| Product | Region/Category | 2026/6/11 | 2026/6/4 | Change | Change % | Unit |
|------------------------------------------------|-----------------|-----------|----------|--------|----------|---------|
| Cracked C9 | North China | 4446 | 4467 | -21 | -0.47% | CNY/ton |
| Industrial Aromatic Solvent | East China | 5349 | 5226 | +123 | +2.35% | CNY/ton |
| C9 Petroleum Resin | North China | 5829 | 5960 | -131 | -2.20% | CNY/ton |

Data source: chempricehub

Cost Side: This week, international crude oil prices fluctuated downward. The weekly average price of Brent crude was $93.38 per barrel, down $1.53 per barrel from the previous week, a decline of 1.61%. The international market was mixed with bullish and bearish factors: Repeated US-Iran conflicts and blocked straits once raised concerns about crude oil supply, but progress in peace talks, increasing expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate hike, and low operating rates at Asian refineries ultimately suppressed oil prices. The decline in crude oil prices directly weakened the cost support for cracked C9, leaving upstream raw materials with no impetus for price increases and unable to drive up cracked C9 prices.

Supply Side: Supply showed a slight contraction. This period, the total output of cracked C9 was 58,900 tons, a decrease of 200 tons month-on-month, and capacity utilization fell to 74.18%, down 0.14 percentage points from the previous period. This week, Hainan Refining & Chemical started a new maintenance shutdown, while multiple units at Jincheng Petrochemical, Yanshan Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, Sinopec-SK (Wuhan) Petrochemical, and others remained under major turnaround. Combined with reduced operating loads at units such as Sinochem Quanzhou, domestic production overall declined. Based on the maintenance schedule, it is forecasted that output and capacity utilization will continue to edge down next week, providing marginal support on the supply side, though the support is limited and unlikely to reverse the market weakness.

Demand Side: The two main downstream products of cracked C9 showed divergent trends. Industry profits generally shrank, and end-users only maintained hand-to-mouth purchasing, resulting in a tepid market atmosphere.

First, C9 petroleum resin: The national average price this week was 5,829 CNY/ton, down 131 CNY/ton from the previous week, a decline of 2.20%. Affected by the shutdown of Panjin Kaiheng and other units, the industry capacity utilization rate fell sharply to 42.17%. The processing margin for resin contracted by 61 CNY/ton from the previous period, a decline of 37.42%. More resin companies are offering price concessions to move inventory. Demand from downstream end-product sectors is weak, with buyers adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and only a small number of low-volume orders for replenishment.

Second, industrial aromatic solvents: This market bucked the trend and strengthened. The national average price was 5,349 CNY/ton, up 123 CNY/ton from the previous week, an increase of 2.35%. The industry capacity utilization rate edged up to 52.58%, and the loss per ton also narrowed. However, the downstream gasoline market for aromatic solvents was relatively weak, providing limited overall demand support, and the incremental procurement of cracked C9 was insufficient.

Industry Chain Transmission: Intensifying Upstream-Downstream Game, Disrupted Transmission Momentum
Overall, the transmission within the industry chain was obstructed. Cracked C9 prices struggled to pass on costs downstream, while declining downstream profits further suppressed raw material procurement enthusiasm, with the upstream-downstream game continuing to intensify.

Summary and Outlook
In summary, cracked C9 market transactions are deadlocked, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range, under the triple pressure of declining crude oil dragging down costs, a slight increase in domestic supply, and weak end-product demand.

Looking ahead, international crude oil is expected to continue its downward trend, further weakening cost support. Although concentrated unit maintenance in the coming period will marginally tighten supply, multiple C9 resin units are planned to shut down, driving downstream operating rates lower. Demand for aromatic solvents is unlikely to improve, and hand-to-mouth procurement will remain the norm. Constrained by multiple bearish factors, it is expected that cracked C9 will consolidate on the weak side in the short term, with the mainstream price reference range of 4,300–4,500 CNY/ton.

Key points to monitor moving forward: Developments in the Middle East geopolitical situation and international crude oil fluctuations, the startup/shutdown progress of upstream and downstream units, and the pace of concentrated replenishment by downstream factories. If crude oil continues to fall sharply or end-user demand further contracts, there is still room for downside in cracked C9 spot prices.