Introduction: Entering April, the polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer market presents a fragmented landscape of strong upstream cost support and weak downstream demand. Geopolitical factors in the Middle East have pushed up crude oil and raw material costs, which have been transmitted to the monomer market, resulting in high prices. However, downstream enterprises, generally burdened by high costs, are operating at reduced capacity and facing weak orders, trapped in a passive state of "daring not to accept orders, not to stockpile, and unable to push prices up." Recently, due to insufficient demand release, polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices are expected to trend weakly.

Upstream: Strong Cost Support, Monomer Market Remains High in Early April

In early April, the situation in the Middle East experienced a sharp turn from a "brief détente" to a "sudden escalation." During this period, crude oil prices fluctuated widely. Geopolitical premiums were shed, leading to a sharp single-day drop in crude oil prices. On April 8th, WTI fell $18.54 to $94.41 per barrel, a decrease of 16.41% month-on-month; Brent fell $14.52 to $94.75 per barrel, a decrease of 13.29% month-on-month. However, prices overall remained high. Although imported ethylene prices saw a slight easing, they remained above $1400 per ton. The market price of ethylene oxide in East China remained at 9000 RMB per ton, providing bottom-line support for monomer prices. As of April 15th, the price of HPEG polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer in East China was in the range of 10100-10700 RMB per ton, a month-on-month increase of 1500-1700 RMB per ton.

In late April, with the easing of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, market sentiment turned pessimistic. While current supply pressure for monomer producers is not high, the downstream industry has entered a quiet period, with a low willingness to purchase. Some enterprises and traders began to lower prices to move inventory. As of April 24th, the price of HPEG polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer in East China was in the range of 9600-10000 RMB per ton, down 500-700 RMB per ton compared to mid-April.

Downstream: Operating Rates Lower Than the Same Period Last Year

Although April falls within the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April," downstream concrete operations generally underperformed compared to the same period last year, and the floor space of new housing starts also declined. Looking at concrete delivery volumes, from March to April 2026, concrete delivery volumes decreased by 0.74 percentage points year-on-year. In terms of new housing starts, the floor space of new housing starts in 2026 decreased again compared to last year. New housing starts from January to March totaled 103.73 million square meters, a decrease of 20.3%. In April, inventory levels at downstream factories were generally lower than in March, and some small and medium-sized factories were slow to resume operations due to cost pressures. At the same time, high and volatile raw material costs have meant that the price increase range and frequency of raw monomers far exceed those of superplasticizers. The downstream industry faces a dilemma where "flour is more expensive than bread." Consequently, monomer producers find it difficult to pass on costs to end-users. Downstream factories have reduced their purchasing intentions, primarily adopting a procurement-on-demand strategy, further suppressing market trading activity. Additionally, some companies believe that current raw material prices contain excessive geopolitical premiums and significant uncertainty. As these factors gradually diminish, they expect room for price corrections in the future. Therefore, facing absolute high prices, the mentality of "buying on rising prices, not on falling ones" no longer applies, and the market has shifted to order-based procurement and a wait-and-see approach.

Market Outlook: Weak Cost Support, Cautious Demand Follow-Through

Raw Material Side: Ethylene Oxide Prices Face Downward Correction Pressure

In the second quarter, the fundamentals for ethylene oxide are expected to show a pattern of "tight first, loose later": early supply tightness combined with geopolitical premiums supported price strength, but later, increasing supply pressure and gradually weakening demand will put the market under correction pressure. On the other hand, sustained geopolitical disruptions providing cost support and boosting macro sentiment may limit the downside potential for prices.

Supply and Demand: Relatively Ample Supply, Weakening Seasonal Demand, Widening Supply-Demand Gap Expected

On the supply side, no new monomer units are anticipated in the second quarter. Constrained by high cost pressures and insufficient new orders, monomer producers are expected to primarily produce based on orders to avoid the risk of profit erosion from high inventory accumulation. Overall supply is relatively ample, presenting a neutral-to-bearish impact on the market.

On the demand side, the second quarter is the off-season for polycarboxylate superplasticizer demand, with holidays like Labor Day and the Dragon Boat Festival offering limited boost to new orders. It is expected that most downstream factories in the second quarter will primarily consume existing inventories and earlier placed orders. Additionally, the unclear macro situation will make downstream players cautious about chasing high prices for restocking, and their resistance to high prices will further suppress demand release.

Conclusion: In summary, based on the trend analysis of costs, supply, and demand, if the raw material ethylene oxide prices remain firm in the short term, the decline in polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices may slow down. However, as the supply-demand gap widens, prices are expected to trend weakly between May and June, which will in turn negatively drag down the raw material market.