[Introduction] Recently, domestic production has remained high while imports have stayed low. The flow of supplies between regions and export shipments have supported market distribution. In the short to medium term, the domestic methanol supply remains tight, and inventory is expected to continue declining. However, potential bearish factors such as downstream negative feedback and expectations of supply recovery have led to cautious market operations, limiting the sustained uptrend in the methanol market. Overall, the domestic methanol market appears somewhat stagnant, with price fluctuations narrowing.

1. High Domestic Production, but Smooth Enterprise Distribution

Supported by considerable methanol production profits (theoretical profit margins for various processes can be found in the weekly China Methanol Sample Profit Statistical Data released on Thursdays), domestic production has remained high recently. Some facilities have planned maintenance in the future, but whether these plans will be implemented remains to be seen.

Figure 1: 2025-2026 Weekly Domestic Methanol Production Trend Comparison Chart (10,000 tons)

Source: chempricehub Information

Although domestic production is high, the arbitrage window from inland to coastal regions has been continuously open. A significant volume of inland supplies has flowed to coastal markets, supporting the distribution of the inland methanol market. Consequently, inventories of domestic production enterprises have mainly declined. However, under the influence of recent uncertain factors, price fluctuations have been frequent, market sentiment has been unstable, and traders have been cautious in their operations. High prices have dampened buying interest, limiting the price uptrend.

2. Low Coastal Import Supply, but Subdued Apparent Import Demand

Although weekly import volumes have shown a phased increase in the past two weeks, they remain at a low level compared to the entire year. Import supply in the coastal methanol market falls short of demand and is expected to stay low in the short to medium term. Port inventories are anticipated to continue declining in May, providing support to the market.

However, some international facilities have recently resumed operations, leading to fluctuations in import volume expectations. Additionally, supplementary inland supplies have alleviated the tight supply situation in the coastal market. Moreover, persistently low import supply could trigger potential downstream negative feedback. Under the influence of multiple factors, holders' willingness to hold inventories has slightly eased, downstream buyers are reluctant to purchase at high prices, but holders remain disinclined to sell at low prices. The overall market performance is somewhat stagnant.

Figure 2: 2025-2026 Weekly Methanol Import Volume Trend Comparison Chart (10,000 tons)

Source: chempricehub Information

3. Multiple Factors at Play: Timely Attention to Various Information Changes Required

From a recent fundamental perspective, the overall domestic methanol market exhibits a supply shortage, with an overall declining inventory trend, providing support to the market. However, changes in expectations significantly impact market sentiment. It is essential to closely and continuously monitor the influence of international facilities, international shipping capacity, domestic methanol, and downstream sectors—especially coastal olefin facilities—on the expected supply-demand structure.