Introduction: Driven by robust export demand and tight spot availability in the market, vinyl acetate (VAc) prices have continued to climb. However, domestic downstream procurement sentiment remains cautious, resulting in limited firm transaction volumes.

Continued geopolitical instability in the Middle East and production disruptions in overseas regions have sustained a spot supply gap. With relatively high operational stability of Chinese VAc plants and a clear export advantage, arbitrage opportunities have opened up effectively. Domestic producers are actively selling for export orders. Furthermore, prices of key upstream raw materials remain elevated, providing continued cost support. Consequently, market prices continue to rise, accompanied by relatively high offers. As of today, taking East China petrochemical prices as an example, negotiations range from 12,200 to 12,400 RMB/ton, representing an increase of 9.82% compared to the beginning of the month.

Supply Side Analysis: As VAc prices have risen, the operating rates of calcium carbide-based units have increased accordingly, with most enterprises running at full capacity. The volume of calcium carbide-based material available for external sales has increased significantly. Some non-calcium carbide-based units are undergoing maintenance shutdowns, while other major facilities are operating stably. Overall VAc production continues to grow. As of today, the overall operating rate for the VAc industry stands at 86.9%, up 3.7% from the beginning of the month.

Cost Side Analysis: In the glacial acetic acid market, as previous bullish sentiment subsides, market trading activity has gradually cooled. Plant sales efforts have weakened compared to earlier periods, coupled with increasing pressure to sell from some traders as previously procured cargoes near expiration, leading to some price softening. However, enterprise inventories generally remain low, with most sales executed under long-term contracts, and producers still exhibit strong price support intentions. In the Asian ethylene market, earlier in the week, ethylene USD prices extended their gains, supported by tight imported shipping resources, strong crude oil performance, and favorable macro and supply-side factors. Subsequently, as crude oil prices fell and naphtha prices showed signs of weakening, ethylene USD price negotiations also experienced slight loosening. Notably, spot shipping resources for ethylene in Asia remain tight, so while prices have declined, the downward momentum is relatively limited. For calcium carbide, previously restarted units have gradually ramped up operations, and increased external sales from integrated facilities have led to a continuous rise in supply. Unstable demand due to downstream maintenance has caused a continuous accumulation of waiting-to-unload trucks, creating a clear market oversupply and prompting a rapid price correction.

Demand Side Analysis: Current VAc demand presents a pattern of "structural divergence and overall weakness." Downstream operating rates are uneven, compounded by the difficulty of passing on high raw material costs, resulting in sluggish spot transactions and insufficient follow-through from rigid demand. Downstream polyvinyl alcohol (PVOH), hampered by weak terminal demand in construction and textiles, sees reduced production enthusiasm among enterprises, with some plants cutting output or switching products, leading to a decline in industry operating rates. Vinyl acetate-ethylene (VAE) emulsion maintains rigid demand, while the ethylene-vinyl acetate (EVA) industry operates at medium-to-high levels, providing relatively stable support for VAc. In traditional terminal sectors such as building materials, packaging, and textiles, the recovery pace is slower than expected. Coupled with soaring raw material prices, factories struggle to pass on costs, leading to resistance against high-priced feedstocks. Small and medium-sized enterprises commonly opt to reduce production and adopt a wait-and-see approach, showing low operational enthusiasm and insufficient follow-through from rigid demand.

Market Outlook: The intensifying divergence between domestic and export demand for VAc is leading producers to hold back sales cautiously and adopt a more prudent order-taking approach. Traders maintain a strong wait-and-see sentiment with reduced willingness to operate. Downstream resistance is intense, with low restocking interest, increasing sales pressure for calcium carbide-based material. The contradictory pattern of "strong supply-side constraints and weak demand-side response" persists. Opposing sentiments across the VAc industry chain, coupled with prolonged high-price stalemate in the market, are intensifying the psychological standoff between buyers and sellers. Market sentiment is gradually shifting from initial optimism and price support towards cautious观望. Consequently, the previously prevalent high offers are gradually disappearing. There is a possibility of short-term, narrow price corrections for material in some regions. However, the overall market is expected to maintain a high-level震荡态势.