Introduction: Amid frequent shifts in the Middle East situation, peaking and declining export demand, clear supply increases, and relatively weak domestic demand support, market dynamics are tilting in favor of buyers. Negotiating high prices has become difficult, and vinyl acetate (VAc) faces evident downward price pressure.

Domestic calcium carbide-based VAc plants are maintaining relatively high operating rates, leading to a continuous increase in supply. Support from the cost side has weakened, while downstream demand is insufficient, resulting in few new orders. Frequent geopolitical changes have slowed export negotiations, dampening previously high market sentiment. Sellers are facing increased sales pressure, high-price offers have disappeared, and price levels have retreated in some regions. Some VAc producers still need to fulfill previous orders, keeping their inventories low and bolstering their determination to hold prices steady. Consequently, mainstream offers remain relatively firm. As of today, taking East China petrochemical prices as an example, the high-low end negotiation range is RMB 12,200-12,400/ton, unchanged from last week.

On the supply side, previously idled VAc units have restarted. Calcium carbide-based plants are operating with high enthusiasm, and some units that had no spot supply for an extended period have now entered the spot market. Most enterprises are running at full capacity. Compared to non-calcium carbide-based methods, supply from calcium carbide-based sources is ample. Zhejiang Petrochemical's 300 kt/year unit is scheduled for maintenance shutdown tomorrow. However, as it has had no spot supply for a long time, its impact on market supply is limited. Other major units are operating stably. As of today, the overall operating rate for the VAc industry stands at 92%, an increase of 9.73 percentage points from the beginning of the month.

Cost-side support is also relatively limited. Upstream acetic acid prices have begun to decline after a sharp rise. Insufficient operation of Asian ethylene cracking units is supporting USD-denominated prices, but acceptance of high-priced USD resources in other countries and regions has declined. It is expected that USD prices may weaken slightly, providing limited cost support for VAc. Regarding calcium carbide, planned maintenance shutdowns at downstream users are gradually being implemented, while increased sales of by-product calcium carbide from integrated plants are further exacerbating the oversupply in the market. The calcium carbide market is expected to continue trading at low levels in the near term.

From the demand perspective, current VAc demand remains weak. Downstream EVA and VAE emulsion demand is relatively stable, primarily digesting contract volumes. Polyvinyl alcohol (PVOH) production rates have declined due to insufficient follow-through from end-user orders. Traditional users find it difficult to pass on costs, leading to low operating enthusiasm and a prevailing wait-and-see sentiment. Spot transactions are light, and rigid demand follow-up is insufficient.

Overall, spot supply in the VAc market continues to increase, exerting downward pressure on prices. Downstream EVA and VAE emulsions provide rigid consumption for VAc, but incremental demand is limited. Other small-volume buyers are resistant to high-priced feedstocks, resulting in scarce new order follow-up and weak spot transactions. With expectations of a phased easing in the Middle East situation and the recovery of overseas supply, market sentiment is turning cautious. International buyers' acceptance of high prices has decreased, slowing new export order negotiations. The pull from external demand on the domestic market is weakening, with export demand having peaked and started to decline. The market will still rely on domestic demand support in the short term. Given the clear supply increases and weak domestic demand support, market dynamics favor buyers, making high-price negotiations difficult. It is expected that the market price level will face narrow downward pressure in the near term.