What drives the current tungsten oxide price surge and how sustainable is it?

What drives the current tungsten oxide price surge and how sustainable is it?
Tungsten prices have rallied over 220% in a year, driven by three structural supply constraints. First, China controls over 80% of global supply and has tightened mining quotas for years—2026 domestic tungsten concentrate quotas were cut 14% versus 2024. Second, ore grades are declining, from 0.42% average in 2004 to 0.28% in 2024, raising production costs and reducing supply elasticity. Third, overseas mine expansions are slow: Almonty's Sangdong mine in Korea and Bakuta in Kazakhstan together add only 4-5% of global demand, with meaningful volumes not expected before 2027. On the demand side, photovoltaic tungsten wire demand doubled from 8,300 tons in 2024 to 16,000 tons in 2025, driven by thinner silicon wafer cutting. AI server PCB micro-drills add further demand. The supply-demand gap is structural, not cyclical, supporting sustained high prices.