What drives the recent surge in potassium chloride and fertilizer prices?

What drives the recent surge in potassium chloride and fertilizer prices?
Fertilizer prices have quietly doubled since July 2025, with KCl port prices up 14.8% month-on-month and over 24% year-on-year. Three factors drive this: geopolitical disruption—Iran, the world's second-largest urea exporter, halted production, and Hormuz shipping risks tripled insurance costs, choking sulfur supply where China relies on the Middle East for 56% of imports; cost-push inflation from higher oil, gas, and coal feeding energy-intensive fertilizer production; and spring planting demand, as February-April accounts for 50% of annual fertilizer use. KCl specifically benefits from China's 50% import dependence—domestic output from Qinghai and Xinjiang covers only half of the 12-14.9 million tons consumed annually. With global potash reserves concentrated in Canada, Russia, and Belarus, supply tightness is structural, and fertilizer costs, representing 30-50% of planting expenses, will inevitably transmit to food prices.