What drives the supply-demand balance and trade dynamics for 1-octanol in China?
China's 1-octanol market has evolved from heavy import dependence to near self-sufficiency. By 2018, the self-sufficiency rate exceeded 92%, with imports at 187,800 tonnes—only about 8% of apparent consumption of 2.14 million tonnes. However, import volumes actually grew 22.9% that year, reflecting strong demand from plasticizer producers. The industry is geographically concentrated: Shandong province alone accounts for nearly 50% of national capacity. Recent years saw limited capacity expansion, but a new cycle began in 2023-2025, led by existing majors. Downstream, DOTP and DOP plasticizers consume over 80% of 1-octanol, with demand tied to PVC processing and construction-related sectors. While supply is tightening during maintenance periods, the long-term outlook depends on how quickly new capacity from projects like Hebei Haihang's 800,000-tonne plant comes online.
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