What is driving ammonium molybdate prices in China's current market cycle?

What is driving ammonium molybdate prices in China's current market cycle?
Ammonium molybdate prices are closely tracking the broader molybdenum rally. In early February 2026, heptammonium molybdate rose about 4,000 yuan per tonne in a single day, following gains in molybdenum concentrate and ferromolybdenum. The upstream driver is tight concentrate supply, as most molybdenum comes as a by-product of copper mining, with no major primary mine projects expected before 2028. Global supply is projected to grow from 300,000 tonnes in 2025 to 360,000 tonnes by 2030, while demand rises from 305,000 to 370,000 tonnes, keeping the market in a tight balance. Steel and specialty alloys still consume about 70% of molybdenum, but new demand from semiconductors, where molybdenum is replacing tungsten in advanced 3D NAND and HBM memory, is adding a high-growth marginal pull. This upstream pressure is directly lifting ammonium molybdate quotes, though downstream buyers, especially steel mills, are resisting sharp increases.