What is driving the current stearic acid price trend in China?

What is driving the current stearic acid price trend in China?
Chinese stearic acid prices are currently in a stable-to-firm range, supported primarily by elevated palm oil feedstock costs and tight import supply. Domestic producers are in a high capacity expansion cycle, with roughly 300,000 tonnes/year of new capacity added in 2024 and an expected average annual growth rate of 5.19% from 2024 to 2028. However, downstream buyers are mostly purchasing on a need-only basis, which limits the upside potential for price increases. The market remains cost-driven rather than demand-driven, with glycerin by-product prices also influencing overall producer economics. Import volumes remain significant, with China importing 1.36 million tonnes of fatty acids in 2021 versus exports of only 95,000 tonnes, indicating persistent reliance on overseas supply for certain grades.