Why did lithium hexafluorophosphate prices surge over 250% in late 2025, and can supply catch up?
The price spike from a 2025 low of 49,000 RMB/ton in July to 172,000 RMB/ton by year-end was driven by a 7,000-ton supply gap in Q4. Demand from EVs and especially energy storage surged—global storage battery shipments jumped 71% in 2025 to 599GWh. On the supply side, capacity had been slashed: nominal domestic capacity fell 30% in 2024 to 319,000 tons after a brutal price war, with actual effective capacity only around 335,000 tons in 2025. Utilization at top producers hit 90%, while smaller players struggled to restart due to high costs and lost customers. New capacity takes at least 18 months to build, so near-term supply remains tight. The CR4 concentration of 55% gives leaders like Tinci, Do-Fluoride, and Tianji strong pricing power, suggesting prices stay elevated through 2026.
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