Will iodine prices keep rising on solid-state battery demand and tight supply?

Will iodine prices keep rising on solid-state battery demand and tight supply?
China's iodine market is structurally tight. Domestic output is only around 900 tonnes per year versus apparent consumption of roughly 8,300 tonnes, leaving import dependence near 89%, almost entirely from Chile and Japan. Global supply is concentrated: Chile accounts for about 56% of the 33,000-tonne world total, Japan 32%. Capacity expansion is slow, with new brine or caliche projects taking 3-5 years to come online. On the demand side, traditional uses in X-ray contrast media, pharmaceuticals, and feed additives are growing at 4% annually, while emerging applications such as sulfide solid-state batteries could add significant consumption—one estimate puts iodine usage at 90 tonnes per GWh, nine times that of perovskite PV. Spot prices for refined iodine (≥99.8%) have already risen about 18% year-on-year to around 635,000 yuan per tonne. A 1-2 year supply gap is plausible, though technology route competition and domestic iodine recovery projects could temper the upside.