Introduction: In the first quarter of 2026, China's bisphenol A (BPA) output reached 1.213 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.92%. In 2025, Shandong Fuyu's 180,000-ton/year unit commenced operation in June, followed by Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 240,000-ton/year unit in July. Both units were in a production ramp-up phase during their initial operation in 2025 but entered stable operation in 2026, achieving full production capacity. Although the 150,000-ton/year unit of Yanhua Jucarbon was phased out in 2026, the first quarter saw a net capacity addition of 270,000 tons/year, significantly offsetting the reduction and resulting in a net capacity growth. Consequently, BPA production in the first quarter of 2026 increased year-on-year.

By 2026, with the removal of Yanhua Jucarbon's 150,000-ton/year BPA unit, China's total BPA capacity currently stands at 6.201 million tons. Compared to 2022, BPA capacity in 2026 has grown by 1.6 times. The concentrated release of BPA capacity occurred between 2022 and 2024, driven by high profitability, industrial upgrading, and industry integration, which spurred increased investment in BPA projects in China.

In the first quarter of 2026, China's BPA production exhibited a "V"-shaped trend. February recorded the lowest output of the quarter, primarily due to fewer days in the month, leading to a significant decline in BPA production. March saw the highest output, attributed to two main factors: first, March has more days than February; second, production losses decreased in March, with only three companies undergoing shutdowns, involving a total capacity of 610,000 tons. Among these, Pingmei Shenma's 130,000-ton/year BPA unit has been shut down since October 24, with its restart time still pending; Huizhou Zhongxin's Phase II 240,000-ton/year BPA unit was shut down from February 5 to the end of March; and Jiangsu Ruiheng's Phase II 240,000-ton/year BPA unit underwent technical renovation shutdown on the evening of March 17 and is expected to restart before the Qingming Festival.

The correlation coefficient between China's BPA production and price in the first quarter of 2026 was 0.63. From January to February, reduced production, low spot inventory due to prior overselling by factories, and pre-holiday restocking by downstream users narrowed the supply-demand gap. As a result, BPA production and price showed a negative correlation, driving up BPA prices. However, in March, the relationship shifted to a positive correlation, primarily due to rising geopolitical tensions, which led to a broad surge in prices across the industrial chain. The rapid increase in costs spurred a significant rise in BPA prices in March, turning losses into profits for BPA producers. Stable operation of BPA production facilities, coupled with more days in March, jointly contributed to the increase in BPA output.

As of the writing date, chempricehub data indicates that eight units are scheduled for shutdowns over the next two months, involving an annual processing capacity of 2.01 million tons, with an estimated production loss of approximately 190,000 tons. Maintenance plans for operational BPA producers are concentrated in April and May. The commissioning of Shandong Ruilin's 240,000-ton/year BPA unit has been delayed and is now expected in June, while Jilin Petrochemical's 240,000-ton/year BPA unit is slated for startup in May. However, supply from new units in their initial months is limited. Overall, BPA supply is projected to decline initially before rising over the next three months.