Introduction: During the holiday period, international crude oil prices fluctuated widely. However, due to holiday logistics and transport restrictions, end-users primarily purchased locally, while refinery gasoline production and sales failed to exceed 100%. With no significant positive catalyst at the end-user level, mixed C5 refineries followed market trends, and the market experienced weak fluctuations.
I. Pre-Holiday Market Review
Before the holiday, the prospects for negotiations between the US and Iran remained unclear, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz continued to be disrupted, and international oil prices rose. On the demand side, refined oil prices in the Shandong region bottomed out and rebounded. Boosted by a positive market atmosphere, there was just-in-time stocking for mixed C5 during the May Day holiday. With a market bottom-fishing mentality, mixed C5 prices at refineries rebounded quickly, and traders and downstream factories actively entered the market. However, the rally was short-lived; after mixed C5 prices increased, the purchasing enthusiasm of traders and downstream factories slowed, and the market lacked upward momentum.
II. Comparison of International Crude Oil Prices During the May Day Holiday
Table 1 Comparison of International Crude Oil and Related Product Prices (USD/barrel)
| Product | April 29 | May 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI | 106.88 | 106.42 | -0.46 |
| Brent | 118.03 | 114.44 | -3.59 |
Data source: chempricehub Information
The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East remained the main factor influencing international oil prices. During the holiday period, oil prices fluctuated significantly, mainly affected by US-Iran negotiations and navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz.
III. Comparison of Shandong Mixed C5 and Related Product Prices During the May Day Holiday
Table 3 Comparison of Shandong Mixed C5 and Related Product Prices (RMB/ton)
| Product | April 30 | May 5 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92# Gasoline | 8016 | 7981 | -35 |
| Toluene | 6925 | 6800 | -125 |
| Xylene | 7020 | 6915 | -105 |
| Mixed C5 | 5230 | 5190 | -40 |
| Raffinate Oil | 5730 | 5550 | -180 |
| MTBE | 6480 | 6450 | -30 |
| Alkylate | 8600 | 8600 | 0 |
Data source: chempricehub Information
During the holiday, rising crude oil futures stimulated market participants to enter the market. However, the gasoline market was weak, with no significant increase in end-user demand. Dragged down by weak terminal consumption, the mixed C5 market experienced weak fluctuations. Prior to the holiday, refineries had good sales and no inventory pressure, which limited the extent of the decline in mixed C5 prices.
IV. Post-Holiday Forecast
In May, domestic gasoline inventory is under significant overall pressure. The previously rumored export volumes provide limited improvement to the current situation, and the gasoline market is expected to remain under pressure. From a supply-demand perspective for mixed C5, the shutdown of CNOOC Taizhou's reformer for maintenance will lead to a slight decrease in market consumption, but the impact on the market is limited. Restrained by weak demand, the mixed C5 market is expected to continue its weak, volatile trend after the holiday.
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