Lead: Downstream air-conditioner production schedules feed into R32 purchase orders, which in turn affect R32 output and operating rates. In August 2026, household air-conditioner production was scheduled at 10.73 million units, down 16.7% from the actual output in the same period last year. Fluorinated refrigerant R32 output rebounded month-on-month but remained at low load.
Table: Quantitative correlation trend between R32 and AC production schedules
| Time node | AC production schedule / output | Change | R32 situation | Correlation analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | Production 13.158 million units (YoY -18.3%) | Domestic sales -20.2% | Output 12,100 tonnes; capacity utilization 33.81% | Sharp decline in AC domestic sales weighed on R32 demand, pushing output to a low level. |
| August 2026 | Scheduled production 10.73 million units (YoY -16.7%) | Domestic sales -24.1%; exports -8.1% | Output 15,200 tonnes; capacity utilization 44.70% | Production schedules kept weakening, but R32 rebounded month-on-month on quota consumption pace. |
| September 2026 (forecast) | Scheduled production 9.75 million units (YoY -7.7%) | Domestic sales -9.4%; exports -11.7% | Estimated output 14,000–16,000 tonnes; operating rate 40–45% | Production schedules fall to a low point for the year; new-unit demand weakens and the maintenance season winds down. |
Data source: Chempricehub
R32 is the core refrigerant charge for household air conditioners, and its capacity is highly linked to AC production schedules. When AC production schedules rise, air-conditioner manufacturers increase R32 purchase orders, lifting utilization at R32 plants. Conversely, a decline in AC schedules directly drags on R32 demand.
Looking one month backward, in July 2026, AC production reached 13.158 million units, down 18.3% year-on-year; sales were 13.327 million units, down 18.9% year-on-year, of which domestic sales were 7.383 million units, down 20.2%, and exports were 5.944 million units, up 1.5%. The more than 20% plunge in domestic AC sales transmitted directly to upstream R32 demand: July R32 output was only 12,100 tonnes, with capacity utilization at 33.81%, both at low levels for the year. In August, AC production was scheduled at 10.73 million units, down 16.7% year-on-year and down further month-on-month. In mid-to-late August, AC makers' production schedules declined sequentially, and demand from new installations weakened notably. However, R32 output in August was 15,200 tonnes, with capacity utilization at 44.70%, rebounding month-on-month from July. The main reasons can be broken down as follows:
Pace adjustment under quota constraints: According to R32 industry data, as of the end of June 2026, the cumulative quota consumption rate for the R32 industry was about 38.17%, slower than the annual pace. Entering the second half of the year, enterprises needed to accelerate quota consumption. The month-on-month output rebound in August was a normal adjustment in the quota consumption pace.
Easing international situation and stronger exports: In July, R32 export volumes grew month-on-month, with European heatwaves driving localized restocking. Active overseas orders, combined with the AC maintenance peak season, provided some support to R32 demand, and export shipments were smoother than earlier in the year.
Mainstream plants controlling supply and prioritizing long-term contracts: The actual operating rate of the R32 industry remained below 50%. Major mainstream plants controlled supply and were reluctant to sell, prioritizing delivery to long-term contract customers, leaving very little room for spot-order price negotiation. Even as downstream AC production schedules weakened, the rigidity of long-term contract orders prevented R32 output from falling proportionally.
The fluorinated refrigerant R32 market held firm in a sideways pattern, with supply controlled to support prices. On the fundamentals, as of press time, the mainstream domestic market price of R32 was around 64,000–65,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly average of 64,500 yuan/ton, up 362 yuan/ton month-on-month, or 0.56%. On the supply side, August R32 output was 15,200 tonnes, up 6.33% month-on-month but down sharply by 38.34% year-on-year; capacity utilization was 44.70%, up 2.66 percentage points month-on-month but down sharply by 27.80 percentage points year-on-year. Mainstream manufacturers produced evenly in line with quota progress, with average monthly load at 40–50%. Leading large plants guaranteed supplies to AC manufacturers. During the month, several plants balanced inventory and arranged maintenance and shutdowns, actively supporting offers and effectively executing the strategy of controlling supply to support prices. On the downstream side, total household AC production was scheduled at 10.73 million units in August, down 6.23% year-on-year and 23.08% month-on-month, with domestic-sales schedules down 12.84% year-on-year. In the traditional off-season, AC demand weakened, yet R32 prices remained high, with quota consumption progress providing notable price support. On exports, July R32 export volume was 2,100 tonnes, down 25.27% month-on-month and down sharply by 71.47% year-on-year, indicating clear weakness in external demand.
R32's monthly average theoretical profit was 47,882 yuan/ton, down 0.71% month-on-month but up 5.91% year-on-year, the highest profit level among the four varieties, with profitability continuing to lead. R32 ex-factory offers were stable, and the market's actual transaction center moved sideways. The monthly average price was 64,500 yuan/ton, up 0.56% month-on-month and 22.22% year-on-year. The substantial year-on-year price increase was the core support for maintaining high profits. Dichloromethane in August showed an overall trend of falling first and then rising, with the monthly average price up 3.29% month-on-month. The rebound in the latter part of the month provided some support to costs. Combined with anhydrous hydrogen fluoride rising by about 600 yuan/ton month-on-month, with the mainstream domestic market price at 14,700–14,900 yuan/ton delivered, the R32 industry cost rose to 16,618 yuan/ton, up 4.42% month-on-month and 30.24% year-on-year. The 22.22% year-on-year price increase was far below the 30.24% cost increase, yet profits still rose 5.91% year-on-year, mainly because R32's profit base was large (47,882 yuan/ton) and the cost increase was covered by the high price level. On a month-on-month basis, costs rose 4.42% while prices rose only 0.56%, so profits fell slightly by 0.71% month-on-month, with the profit reduction mainly driven by the rapid rise on the cost side.
Chempricehub forecast: In September, AC production is expected to be scheduled at 9.75 million units, down 7.7% year-on-year and 9.1% month-on-month. The seasonal off-season, combined with weak end-user demand, will push production schedules to a relatively low level for the year. The narrowed decline in domestic sales is mainly due to the low-base effect; actual demand remains sluggish. Exports may reverse in October, but September will remain under pressure. For fluorinated refrigerant R32, the mainstream manufacturer's offer reference is 65,500 yuan/ton. Under the rigid constraint of the quota system, companies have a strong willingness to control supply and support prices. Prices are expected to remain firm at high levels, with the mainstream range running at 63,500–64,500 yuan/ton.
Comments
0