Lead: This week, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market underscored a strong third-quarter tone through an auction. In Shandong, the mainstream deal price settled at 4,810 yuan/ton, up sharply by 250 yuan/ton week on week. The jump not only locked in a provisional floor for prices but also delivered a powerful confidence boost to the downstream chain on the sentiment front. Meanwhile, international crude oil traded high with sharp fluctuations. With the cost center shifting upward and the price advantage of competing feedstocks becoming increasingly evident, ethylene tar oil producers have gained exceptional confidence to hold prices firm, driving a strong high-level rally in weekly prices.
I. Coal tar auction beat expectations, bottom signal increasingly clear
This week, the mainstream transaction price of high-temperature coal tar stood at 4,810 yuan/ton, a notable weekly jump of 250 yuan/ton. The rise was not merely a speculative rally; rather, it reflected both tightening supply and solid demand from downstream deep-processing operations.
From the supply side, independent coking plants in the main producing regions saw limited room to raise operating rates due to high coke-oven coal costs, keeping the volume of high-temperature coal tar available to the market relatively tight. The auction's high-premium transaction levels and the 250-yuan/ton weekly gain not only provided a solid price benchmark for the spot market but also directly lifted the pricing center for ethylene tar oil, a competing feedstock, setting the stage for a parallel upward move in its price.
II. Crude oil stays elevated, cost support comes to the fore
As coal tar's own fundamentals strengthened, the external energy market delivered a favorable tailwind. International crude oil prices continued to trade high, with geopolitical premiums and OPEC+ production cuts jointly forming a rigid floor under oil prices.
For ethylene tar oil, persistently high crude prices imply little room for cracking feedstock costs to decline, thereby squeezing the overall profitability of ethylene cracking units. In this scenario, ethylene tar oil, as an output of ethylene cracking units, sees its pricing flexibility shaped by cost-side pressure. As long as crude oil does not fall, cost support remains firmly in place. This rigid backing from upstream energy gives ethylene tar oil producers a direct sense of safety margin. Even if downstream demand fluctuates in the short term, absolute cost constraints leave limited space for price pullbacks. The cost factor does more than cap downside risk—it also reinforces the market's expectation that high-priced material will be accepted out of necessity.
III. Competitive price advantage stands out, substitution demand for ethylene tar oil expands
If the cost side provided the foundation for “defense,” then the price relationship with competing products gives ethylene tar oil momentum for “attack.” As high-temperature coal tar prices surged to 4,810 yuan/ton, its application cost in downstream sectors rose substantially, making ethylene tar oil an increasingly economical substitute.
To be specific, once high-temperature coal tar exceeded the 4,800-yuan mark, downstream carbon black producers began to re-evaluate the cost-performance weighting of the two tars in their formulations so as to control raw-material costs. Because ethylene tar oil had risen by a relatively gentler margin, its price advantage suddenly widened. The substitution orders arising from this price ratio shifted toward the ethylene tar oil market, affording producers stronger bargaining power when they held prices firm this week.
IV. Producers' price-support resolve is rock solid, high-level trend logic remains intact
With coal tar's bottom confirmed and crude oil trading high, the resulting twin-anchor cost system—combined with incremental demand from the favorable price differential—led ethylene tar oil producers to show unprecedentedly unified price support this week. Mainstream producers raised listing prices consecutively, and some auction participants limited sales volume as a sign of reluctance to offload cargoes. The underlying logic behind this behavior is not sheer profit-chasing, but rather a comprehensive read on tight ethylene tar oil supply and robust replacement demand.
Looking forward, in the near term, the bullishness around high-temperature coal tar auctions has not yet cooled, and elevated price levels are likely to extend to surrounding producing regions. International crude oil, underpinned by strong seasonal consumption expectations, also has little room for a deep decline. Positive feedback from the cost side and the competitive-pricing side continues to build. The high-level rally in ethylene tar oil is grounded in visible fundamentals rather than empty speculation. Next week, the ethylene tar oil market is expected to keep a strong tone, with the price center likely to edge upward moderately on stronger transaction activity. The focus of upstream-downstream negotiations will shift to how end users digest and adapt to the new high-price normal.
V. Conclusion
This week, ethylene tar oil was driven upward by a convergence of positive factors: coal tar auctions exceeded expectations, the price-competitive advantage improved, crude oil remained firm, and ethylene tar oil supply tightened amid lightening conversion trends. Unless the underlying cost logic undergoes a fundamental reversal, the current high-level market trajectory will only become more solid step by step.
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