Introduction: Since 2023, domestic n-butanol production has entered a comprehensive expansion phase. As new capacity comes online annually, the domestic supply landscape continues to evolve, and the self-sufficiency rate is steadily rising.
1. Gradual Commissioning of New Domestic n-Butanol Capacity
From 2021 to 2026, the growth rate of new n-butanol capacity in China has accelerated. In 2021, Shandong Nuoao commissioned one unit with an annual capacity of 40,000 tonnes. No new capacity was added in 2022, keeping total capacity stable at 2.76 million tonnes. In 2023, the successive commissioning of units by Ningxia Baichuan, Ningbo Juhua, and Guangxi Huayi marked the official start of the expansion cycle. New capacity added in 2023 totaled 480,000 tonnes/year, accounting for 15% of that year’s total capacity. In 2024, Zhejiang Satellite commissioned new facilities comprising a 360,000 tonnes/year n-butanol unit and an 180,000 tonnes/year butyl octanol unit, totaling 540,000 tonnes/year, which represented 14% of total capacity. In 2025, new capacity additions reached 445,000 tonnes/year, or 11% of total capacity. For 2026, two new units are planned: Guangxi Huayi (160,000 tonnes/year) and Penglai Wanhua (300,000 tonnes/year), totaling 460,000 tonnes/year, or 10% of total capacity. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for capacity is approximately 11%.
2. Shifts in Domestic Supply Landscape Following Capacity Additions
Between 2021 and 2026, significant changes occurred in the regional distribution of China’s n-butanol capacity. The East China and South China regions have seen their share of capacity expand due to increased production. Regarding enterprise ownership, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) still hold the largest share; however, private enterprises have increased their contribution to new capacity as more facilities come online.
As new capacity has gradually entered the market in recent years, the supply structure across domestic regions has shifted quietly.
Shandong Region: Shandong benefits from convenient access to propylene, reducing raw material transportation costs for n-butanol production. From 2021 to 2023, domestic n-butanol capacity was primarily concentrated in Shandong. After new capacity came online in other regions post-2023, Shandong dropped to second place in 2024–2025. However, the commissioning of Wanhua’s new capacity in 2026 will return Shandong to the top position in terms of supply.
East China Region: East China has always been both a major supply and consumption hub for n-butanol. Although new capacity was added between 2021 and 2023, East China remained the second-largest supplier. From 2023 onwards, continued capacity additions elevated East China to the top supply region in 2024–2025. With no new capacity planned for this region in 2026, it will fall back to the second-largest supply position.
South China Region: As a primary consumption area in the domestic market, South China previously faced tight supply conditions and relied on external sources. Consequently, it has become a key destination for new capacity investments. Starting in 2023, new capacity has been progressively commissioned, establishing South China as the third-largest supply region consistently from 2023 to 2026.
By 2026, following the commissioning of new n-butanol capacity in China, Shandong Province leads with a total capacity of 1.47 million tonnes/year, accounting for 31% of the national total. East China ranks second with 1.375 million tonnes/year (29%), followed by South China in third place with 835,000 tonnes/year (18%). Notable growth has also occurred in Northwest China, with a total capacity of 420,000 tonnes/year (9%); Southwest China with 210,000 tonnes/year (4%); Northeast China with 205,000 tonnes/year (4%); and North China with 170,000 tonnes/year (4%).
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