Atmosphere has recovered; awaiting guidance (2026-09-30 to 10:08)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

1. Downstream Refrigerant Industry October Long-term Contract Pricing: Sinochem Taicang at 14,600 RMB/ton; Shangyu at 14,500 RMB/ton; Juhua at 14,500-14,550 RMB/ton; Meilan at 14,800 RMB/ton; Dongyue at 14,760 RMB/ton.

2. Assessment indicates that the industry's overall capacity utilization and production volume are expected to remain stable this week.

3. Fluorinated refrigerants maintain firm offers with gradual transaction execution.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Data Source: Chempricehub

Domestic Anhydrous Hydrofluoric Acid Weekly Price Table

The domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market sentiment rebounded against the trend this week. Regarding pricing, last week's anhydrous HF contracts saw declines ranging from 200 to 600 RMB/ton. However, most producers' offers did not fluctuate significantly, primarily showing drops of 200-300 RMB/ton or remaining stable. On the raw material front, fluorite prices experienced range-bound fluctuations with limited impact on costs. Meanwhile, the sulfuric acid market has been continuously rising recently. Southern sulfuric acid enterprises enjoyed smooth shipments before and during the holiday, reducing inventory pressure and driving prices upward in stages, thereby exerting sustained pressure on costs. The combination of cost increases, supply gaps, and demand inquiries led to a recovery in inquiry and negotiation activities within the market. Major northern plants have yet to announce restart expectations, deepening the wait-and-see attitude among market participants. Further information is needed for future guidance. As of press time, the mainstream delivered price reference for the East China anhydrous HF market in October was 14,500-14,800 RMB/ton, while the Shandong market reference was 14,760-15,000 RMB/ton.

3. Raw Material Market Analysis:

Weekly Fluorite Market Analysis:

This week, the domestic 97% fluorite concentrate market showed limited volatility as it awaited further developments. It coincided with the bidding pricing cycle for hydrogen fluoride, where pricing centers mostly declined by 200-600 RMB/ton. Regional differentiation was notable but continued to influence fluorite trends. The fluorite market also displayed divergent performance. Northern markets had ample supply, but demand was supported by winter stockpiling needs. Additionally, prolonged fuel shortages in Mongolia led to increased freight rates. Southern markets remained cautious; downstream pricing dropped significantly, and sulfuric acid showed signs of rebound post-holiday. However, holders maintained firm sentiments, with low enthusiasm from end-users entering the market, awaiting post-holiday momentum. Current spot delivered price references across regions are: Inner Mongolia 3,350-3,500 RMB/ton; Zhejiang 3,500-3,600 RMB/ton; Jiangxi and Fujian 3,700-3,850 RMB/ton; Shandong 3,550-3,650 RMB/ton; Northwest 3,400-3,500 RMB/ton; Henan and Anhui 3,450-3,550 RMB/ton. As of press time, the mainstream delivered price reference for domestic wet fluorite powder was 3,300-3,850 RMB/ton.

Sulfuric Acid:

This week, the domestic sulfuric acid market showed divergent trends. In some regions, acid prices had previously fallen to low levels, improving shipment conditions. Combined with planned maintenance shutdowns at acid enterprises in Guangxi, Anhui, and Shandong after the holiday, expectations of tightened future supply drove local rebounds. Acid prices in Zhejiang and Jiangxi rose by 100-200 RMB/ton this week. Most other regions remained stable, focusing on fulfilling previous orders with no significant changes in quotes. Overall demand remains weak, with downstream phosphate fertilizer and chemical enterprises maintaining essential purchases amidst cautious market sentiment. Short-term forecasts suggest the sulfuric acid market will continue its divergent trend. Currently, ex-factory prices for 98% smelting-grade acid in Jiangxi ranged from 1,090-1,150 RMB/ton, up 10.10%/9.52% week-on-week. Delivered prices for 98% smelting-grade acid in Guangxi ranged from 1,300-1,550 RMB/ton, down 8.45%/unchanged week-on-week.

R22:

This period, major East China producers maintained firm offers for R22 refrigerant for both domestic and international trade, keeping the market generally weakly stable. As of press time, mainstream producer offers in East China referenced 24,000 RMB/ton (unified domestic/international quote); mainstream market offers in East China referenced 21,000-23,000 RMB/ton. The transaction center for R22 (feedstock grade) referenced 12,000 RMB/ton. For R22 (ODS), bulk liquid demand in the domestic market was poor, with channel inquiries focused on small packages. However, shipment volumes were significantly reduced, and some channels sold inventory at discounted prices. Under social inventory pressure, the industry operating rate for R22 (ODS + feedstock grade) stabilized at 68% (down 1 percentage point from the previous period). In terminal markets, usage in South China declined substantially, while North China entered the off-season with shrinking demand. Bearish sentiment dominated the channels, yet holders maintained firm offers despite high acquisition costs, waiting for official signal confirmation from major producers. In the short term, mainstream factory offers remain firm, operating loads are low, and the market awaits downstream digestion. Chempricehub predicts that mainstream factory offers for fluorinated refrigerants in East China will remain firm, with R22 (ODS) referencing 24,000 RMB/ton.

R32:

This period, mainstream factories maintained firm offers for R32 refrigerant, controlling volumes to support prices. As of press time, mainstream producer offers in East China referenced 65,500 RMB/ton (unified domestic/international quote); mainstream market offers in East China referenced 63,500-64,500 RMB/ton. Affected by seasonality, industry demand turned soft, with OEMs shipping according to orders. Recent Q4 contract negotiations saw limited price increases. On the production side, quota adjustments mainly involved volume reductions to control spot output bases. During the export "window," suppliers actively exported to ensure quota completion rates. Statistics show the R32 industry operating rate stabilized at 48% (up 4 percentage points from the previous period), suggesting that balancing limited demand space is preferable to high operating rates leading to inventory buildup. Reports indicate that supported by firm official offers for R32 and R125, the blended refrigerant R410A maintained high price ranges, though channels engaged in quiet selling. Chempricehub predicts factory gate offers for R32 at 65,500 RMB/ton (unified domestic/international quote) and for R410A at 59,500 RMB/ton.

5. Next Week Market Forecast

Based on the above analysis, spot transactions in the market have once again reached annual highs. Although market sentiment has been boosted, participants remain rational, with actual transactions primarily consisting of spot deals. Future prospects depend on observing northern plant restarts and demand performance. Chempricehub forecasts that the domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market will experience range-bound fluctuations next week.