Bidirectional Tug-of-War Between Costs and Supply: Volatile Fluctuations in the Vinyl Acetate Market and Post-Holiday Outlook

【Introduction】: In September, the domestic vinyl acetate (VAM) market was driven by both cost factors and supply expectations, resulting in a price trend that started strong, weakened, and then reversed. Looking ahead to the post-National Day holiday period, high raw material prices will provide strong cost support. Combined with the expectation of supply contraction due to concentrated maintenance shutdowns across multiple units in October, the market has a basis for maintaining firm prices.

Since early September, the domestic VAM market has followed a trend of initial strength, subsequent weakness, and final reversal. In the first half of the month, supported by firm upstream raw material prices and expected supply contractions from partial unit maintenance, market prices rose steadily. By mid-to-late September, downstream end-user willingness to take delivery gradually diminished, transactions for high-priced goods stalled, upward momentum faded, and prices retreated from highs as holders' sentiment softened and the price center shifted downward. In late September, as multiple supply-side maintenance plans were confirmed, the market refocused on the reduction in supply anticipated from concentrated October maintenance. Expectations of tighter supplies heated up again, boosting market sentiment and causing prices to rebound and reverse course. As the holiday approached, logistics transportation began to face restrictions, leading to a calmer overall market atmosphere with prices oscillating at high levels.

(Note: Image-only content and captions such as "Figure 1", "Figure 2", and data source lines have been omitted per instructions.)

Since mid-to-late August, upstream raw material glacial acetic acid has seen a significant rise in its price center, influenced by intertwined factors on the raw material, supply, and demand sides. From the perspective of methanol supply and demand, the stalemate in US-Iran negotiations persists, with Middle Eastern geopolitical premiums providing sustained support for energy and chemical product prices including crude oil derivatives, methanol, and ethylene glycol. During this period, port inventories of these products dropped to historically low levels due to long lead times for imports, highlighting empty storage tanks in some areas and tightening commodity liquidity. Strong and high basis differentials became a common market feature for certain products, keeping methanol prices at relatively high levels. Meanwhile, the supply-demand structure of the glacial acetic acid market itself has shifted, with marginal improvements in balance. Under the combined influence of rising raw material costs and supply-demand repair, the floor for glacial acetic acid prices has been further solidified. With the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approaching, glacial acetic acid experienced six consecutive weekly price increases this week, providing strong cost push for VAM. Domestic and Northeast Asian ethylene markets continued their strength; insufficient operating rates of Korean cracking units kept regional ethylene quotes rising, while domestic acceptance of high-priced imported supplies improved, simultaneously lifting VAM raw material costs. Facing procurement difficulties and high cost pressures, some VAM producers lowered their unit operating loads, with multiple units preparing to enter shutdown for maintenance.

Since mid-to-late September, accompanied by the six consecutive price hikes in glacial acetic acid, raw material costs have continued to rise. Although VAM market prices rebounded following cost increases, the rapid pace of cost escalation squeezed producer profit margins. Consequently, profits for some producers were compressed, forcing them to reduce loads or conduct maintenance to avoid losses. Comparing the two production processes, the calcium carbide method is more sensitive to changes in raw material prices. During phases of rapid raw material price increases, its profit recovery pace lags behind that of the ethylene method, resulting in relatively greater production pressure.

(Note: Image-only content and captions such as "Figure 3", "Figure 4", and data source lines have been omitted per instructions.)

In October, the domestic VAM industry enters a cycle of concentrated planned maintenance involving multiple mainstream production units using both calcium carbide and ethylene methods. According to maintenance schedules, Guangxi Huayi entered maintenance on September 25 and is scheduled to resume operations in early October. Inner Mongolia Shuangxin, Celanese, and Shanghai Petrochemical will begin planned maintenance in early October and mid-to-late October respectively. Fujian Haiquan’s ethylene-method unit faces a high probability of shutdown for maintenance after the National Day holiday due to tight raw material supply, with the resumption time currently undetermined. This round of maintenance consists primarily of annual planned overhauls. The total capacity involved across the maintaining enterprises is 1.17 million tons, with an estimated loss of approximately 42,000 tons of commercial volume already identified.

Effective domestic VAM supply in October will contract significantly. Some maintenance periods span the National Day holiday, further compressing spot commodity availability in October. Considering the current industry status, this round of concentrated maintenance is partly due to routine annual equipment upkeep by some enterprises, but largely driven by high costs, tight raw material supply, and pressured profitability, with some companies using the maintenance window to avoid losses. The expectation of supply contraction provides strong bottom-line support for the spot market and was a key driver behind the VAM price rebound in late September.

Table 1: Summary of China Vinyl Acetate Unit Maintenance in October 2026 (Unit: 10,000 tons)

(Note: Data source line omitted.)

Entering late September and October, profit margins are being squeezed by high raw material costs, coinciding with the opening of the annual concentrated maintenance window. Multiple domestic units plan to shut down, leading to an expected decline in industry utilization rates later. Although market prices rebounded earlier, cost pressures have not been fully digested, and some enterprises still intend to reduce loads. Therefore, October capacity utilization may decline from high levels. Compared to the same period last year, there are more maintenance units this October, suggesting the drop in operating rates may be larger than in October 2025.

(Note: Image-only content and captions such as "Figure 5" and data source lines have been omitted per instructions.)

Overall VAM operating rates remain at medium-to-high levels, but performance varies significantly among downstream products. The VAE emulsion industry maintains medium-to-high operating rates. Polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) operations fluctuate, with loads oscillating between 60% and 78% due to self-maintenance and profit volatility. EVA unit operations show the most dramatic fluctuations, experiencing several sharp rises and falls within the year. Dragged down by their own raw materials and profitability issues, EVA capacity utilization once fell below 60%, leading to a noticeable weakening in VAM consumption.

In September, as VAM prices continued to rise, downstream acceptance of high-priced raw materials gradually decreased. It is evident that in late September, PVA and EVA operating rates declined simultaneously, with only VAE emulsions maintaining relatively good operational levels. Overall, downstream sectors did not follow VAM's high operating rates in sync. Constrained by their own profitability and maintenance schedules, EVA and PVA buyers focused on rigid demand procurement and lacked motivation for active stockpiling. This was also a major reason why transactions for high-priced VAM goods stalled and the market briefly corrected in mid-to-late September.