According to a March 24 report by the Financial Times, just 15 minutes before U.S. President Trump posted on social media about U.S.-Iran dialogue, an unusually large transaction worth approximately $580 million occurred in the international crude oil market, sparking speculation about "insider trading."
The report stated that between 6:49 and 6:50 a.m. New York time on the 23rd, around 6,200 contracts for Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures changed hands. According to Bloomberg data, the nominal value of these contracts reached $580 million. As crude oil futures trading volume surged, the S&P 500 index jumped instantly, with trading volume also increasing significantly.
The report noted that Trump subsequently posted at 7:04 a.m., stating, "Over the past two days, the United States and Iran have engaged in very good and productive discussions regarding a comprehensive and thorough solution to our hostile actions in the Middle East." This news triggered a significant sell-off in global energy markets. As investors scaled back their "bets" on prolonged conflict, S&P 500 index futures and European stock markets rose in tandem.
The report suggested that such "timely" trades were "identical" to those that occurred before previous U.S. attacks on Iran and Venezuela. Several hedge funds indicated that this was one of many cases in recent months where large-scale transactions occurred ahead of major official U.S. announcements.
The report quoted a trader from a large hedge fund, who said that energy consulting agencies had recently noticed multiple unusually timed large transactions. Another investment manager added that a series of precisely timed large transactions had sparked "strong dissatisfaction" among investors.
According to the report, later on the 23rd, Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted on social media, explicitly denying any negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. This statement immediately led to a decline in global stock markets, while the energy market saw renewed buying activity.
Ghalibaf stated that the purpose of spreading "false news is to manipulate financial and oil markets, thereby helping the United States and Israel escape the deep quagmire they are in."