I. Key Focus Points
Core logic: Fundamentals are still in a tug-of-war, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Sep 8 | Sep 7 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene | Delivered to Central Shandong | 14940 | 15050 | -0.73% |
| Butadiene | Jiangyin ex-tank self-pickup | 14500 | 14650 | -1.02% |
| Butadiene | CFR China | 1600 | 1600 | 0.00% |
| Crude Oil | ICE Brent | 93.03 | -- | -- |
| Butadiene Rubber (BR) | Daqing BR9000 | 15600 | 15500 | 0.65% |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Unit for CFR China is USD/ton, for crude oil is USD/barrel; all other units are RMB/ton. | ||||
| 2. The two listed prices are point-in-time prices for the two working weeks prior to this week, not weekly averages. | ||||
| 3. Change rate is the period-over-period change rate. |
III. Market Outlook
In the short term, uncertainty over the direction of the Middle East situation has left the market with some concerns about future crude oil supply, supporting higher crude prices and underpinning butadiene costs from the feedstock side. In addition, there is no obvious expectation of supply increases in the domestic butadiene market in the near term, which has strengthened market sentiment. Sellers continue to hold firm offers, and low-priced sources are hard to find. However, downstream buyers' acceptance of high-priced feedstock is gradually becoming limited, with moderate follow-through buying and a cautious wait-and-see mood prevailing. Therefore, the domestic butadiene market is expected to fluctuate within a range.
IV. Data Calendar
| Data Type | Release Date | Previous Data | Trend Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene Port Inventory | Wednesday 17:00 | 2.62 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Production Profit | Friday 17:00 | 4535.25 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Inventory Analysis | Friday 17:00 | 4.05 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate | Friday 17:00 | 64.63% | ↘ |
| Butadiene Weekly Output | Friday 17:00 | 10.46 | ↘ |
| 1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with a change exceeding 3%. | |||
| 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with a change within 0-3%. |
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