I. Key Focus Points
Core Logic: With only a marginal increase in supply, the impact on market trends is limited. Downstream purchasing willingness remains weak, resulting in a soft consolidation of the domestic butadiene market.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Sep 21 | Sep 20 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene | Shandong Luzhong (Delivered) | 13675 | 13850 | -1.26% |
| Butadiene | Jiangyin (Tank Farm Ex-Works) | 13150 | 13350 | -1.50% |
| Butadiene | CFR China | 1600 | 1600 | 0.00% |
| Crude Oil | ICE Brent | 95.78 | -- | -- |
| BR Rubber | Daqing BR9000 | 15050 | 15000 | 0.33% |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. The unit for CFR China is USD/ton, and for crude oil is USD/barrel; all other units are CNY/ton. | ||||
| 2. Prices refer to specific point-in-time prices from the two previous working weeks prior to this week, not weekly averages. | ||||
| 3. Change rate refers to the period-over-period change. |
III. Market Outlook
In the short term, Nanjing Chengzhi’s butadiene plant has restarted operations, and Yangzi Petrochemical’s butadiene plant is expected to restart soon, supplementing spot market circulation resources. However, the marginal increase in supply provides limited guidance for market trends. Downstream demand remains sluggish, with most enterprises maintaining low operating loads and weak willingness to purchase butadiene. The prevailing cautious wait-and-see sentiment within the market may continue to exert pressure on prices. Consequently, the domestic butadiene market is expected to remain in a soft consolidation phase.
IV. Data Calendar
| Data Type | Release Date | Previous Period | Current Period Trend Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene Port Inventory | Wed 17:00 PM | 2.37 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Production Profit | Fri 17:00 PM | 5004.23 | ↘ |
| Butadiene Inventory Analysis | Fri 17:00 PM | 3.93 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate | Fri 17:00 PM | 66.11% | ↘ |
| Butadiene Weekly Output | Fri 17:00 PM | 10.70 | ↘ |
| 1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. | |||
| 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with changes within 0-3%. |
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