I. Key Points
Core Logic: Supply-demand fundamentals are in a stalemate, leading to market consolidation at high levels.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Sep 16 | Sep 15 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene | Shandong Luzhong Delivered | 14350 | 14075 | 1.95% |
| Butadiene | Jiangyin Tank Truck Ex-works | 13850 | 13600 | 1.84% |
| Butadiene | CFR China | 1590 | 1590 | 0.00% |
| Crude Oil | ICE Brent | 105.83 | 108.75 | -2.69% |
| BR Rubber | Daqing BR9000 | 15200 | 15000 | 1.33% |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Units for CFR China are USD/ton; units for crude oil are USD/barrel; all other units are CNY/ton. | ||||
| 2. The two price periods represent point-in-time prices from the two previous working weeks prior to this week, not weekly averages. | ||||
| 3. The change rate refers to the period-over-period percentage change. |
III. Market Outlook
In the short term, merchants have limited willingness to offer low prices due to cost-side support. Combined with strengthening market sentiment, traders are actively holding prices steady while selling. However, Nanjing Chengzhi’s butadiene unit plans to restart operation recently, which may increase domestic supply. Meanwhile, downstream demand is unlikely to see significant improvement. Weak follow-through on buying at high prices could impact market trends. Therefore, the domestic butadiene market is expected to consolidate at high levels.
IV. Data Calendar
| Data Type | Release Date | Previous Period | Expected Trend This Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene Port Inventory | Wed 17:00 PM | 2.37 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Production Profit | Fri 17:00 PM | 5704.78 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Inventory Analysis | Fri 17:00 PM | 3.47 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate | Fri 17:00 PM | 63.85% | ↘ |
| Butadiene Weekly Output | Fri 17:00 PM | 10.33 | ↘ |
| 1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. | |||
| 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuations, highlighting data with changes within 0-3%. |
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