C5 Industry Chain Market Morning Brief

I. Key Focus Areas

1. Market concerns regarding potential escalation of the US-Iran conflict, combined with Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia heightening supply risks, drove international crude oil prices higher. NYMEX WTI futures (December contract) closed at $99.47/bbl, up $2.32/bbl (+2.39% day-on-day); ICE Brent futures (December contract) closed at $113.17/bbl, up $4.35/bbl (+4.00% day-on-day). China INE crude oil futures (contract 2612) rose by 1.2 to 702 CNY/bbl during the day session and increased by 11.2 to 713.2 CNY/bbl in the night session.

2. As of October 22, Japanese naphtha closed at $1,008.39/ton, an increase of $14.27/ton from the previous trading day. Singapore naphtha closed at $107.12/bbl, rising $1.84/bbl from the previous trading day.

3. Yesterday, domestic cracked C5 prices from major state-owned enterprises remained stable. Shandong mixed C5 prices continued to rebound to approximately 7,210 CNY/ton, with strong daily production-sales balance. Private enterprise cracked C5 prices were also reasonable. Deep-processing enterprises rely more heavily on the value of deep-processed products to support costs. In terms of deep processing, low inventory levels for piperylene monomer and robust downstream demand have pushed prices higher. Resin prices remained temporarily stable with average buying interest, primarily driven by rigid demand procurement.

4. Yesterday, some market segments for cracked C5 residual liquid maintained stability. The gasoline market focused on terminal destocking; yesterday’s refinery gasoline inventories accumulated. Mixed C5, a homogeneous product, saw its market price rebound from a bottom. With mixed bullish and bearish factors, the cracked C5 residual liquid market adopted a wait-and-see stance while maintaining stability.

5. Yesterday, the domestic piperylene market was predominantly stable. High-priced auction resources in certain regions were lowered. Overall downstream profits and orders remained weak, leading to insufficient motivation for raw material purchases. Mainstream ex-factory prices ranged from 9,200 to 10,600 CNY/ton.

6. Yesterday, the domestic isoprene market was predominantly stable. Local auction resources traded at premiums. Major downstream buyers lacked momentum to chase higher prices, with other industries following only minimal rigid demand. Mainstream bid prices in East China ranged from 14,100 to 15,100 CNY/ton.

7. Yesterday, domestic dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) ex-factory self-pickup prices ranged from 9,700 to 10,000 CNY/ton. Low-end stable customers and previous orders supported spot prices, which continued to rise. Market supply remained tight. Downstream still had some rigid demand procurement intentions, and combined with the execution of export orders, this supported a firm market.

8. Yesterday, mainstream prices for road marking paint C5 petroleum resin ranged from 9,850 to 11,000 CNY/ton. Temporary maintenance shutdowns of some units reduced supply volumes. Additionally, continuous losses in non-deep-processing directions led to smooth shipments from manufacturers, who mostly delivered against orders. Negotiated prices edged higher amidst general stability.

9. Yesterday, mainstream prices for piperylene adhesive C5 petroleum resin ranged from 11,800 to 13,600 CNY/ton, while hydrogenated adhesive C5 petroleum resin prices ranged from 10,500 to 11,200 CNY/ton. Manufacturers were mostly delivering existing orders. Tight raw material supplies led to reduced operating loads and constrained supply volumes, keeping prices consolidating at high levels.

Core Logic: Cracked C5 temporarily stable, Isoprene rising, Piperylene rising, DCPD rising, C5 Petroleum Resin operating steadily.

II. Price Table

Table 1: Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

III. Market Outlook

Domestic cracked C5 prices are expected to remain stable for major state-owned enterprises, while private enterprise prices will maintain firmness. Shandong mixed C5 transaction prices continued to rise yesterday but remain below cracked C5 prices. Currently, residual liquid prices continue to drag down deep-processing profitability, thereby providing cost support for deep-processed products. Regarding deep processing, low inventory levels for pentadiene monomers support firm upward price trends. Although resin costs provide strong support, downstream demand performance is not active.

The cracked C5 residual liquid market is expected to maintain stability with a wait-and-see attitude. Boosted by crude oil, the gasoline market pushed prices up to facilitate shipments. Refineries dealing with mixed C5 chased higher prices for transactions yesterday. Amidst positive market sentiment, Chempricehub predicts that recent cracked C5 residual liquid markets will largely execute contracts at stable prices, with sporadic price hikes from some refineries.

Overnight crude oil gains boosted traders' willingness to enter the market. Supported by crude oil, gasoline market prices rose. Given positive market sentiment and mixed C5 refineries chasing higher prices for transactions yesterday, Chempricehub predicts mixed C5 prices will rise today.

Isoprene is expected to consolidate at high levels. Overall tight isoprene supply continues to provide support, with localized supply shortages being prominent. However, major downstream buyers lack momentum to push prices higher. Sustained profit losses create adjustment risks for operating loads, so prices are expected to remain temporarily stable.

Piperylene is expected to consolidate temporarily. Factories currently face no inventory pressure, supporting price firmness. However, as prices are already at high levels, downward transmission faces significant resistance, so piperylene is expected to remain temporarily stable.

Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) is expected to maintain a firm trend. Short-term spot supply shows no incremental growth, while downstream users maintain usage despite high costs due to rigid demand. Under supply-demand博弈 (gaming/tension), the high-price trend persists.

For road marking paint C5 petroleum resin, scarce manufacturer spot inventory and persistent cost pressures coexist with weak downstream acceptance of high prices. Market trading is stalemate-like, with negotiated prices seeing sporadic increases. For adhesive C5 petroleum resin, manufacturers have decent order books. Strong cost-side support and reduced supply volumes will drive further increases in negotiated prices.

IV. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)