Can China's monoammonium phosphate capacity still absorb new battery-grade demand?

Can China's monoammonium phosphate capacity still absorb new battery-grade demand?
No new MAP or DAP capacity is planned for 2026 and beyond, yet existing utilization remains low, so the supply overhang persists. Output tells the story: January-October 2025 MAP production was 8.61 million mt, down 6.1% year on year, with DAP at 11.19 million mt, down 6.3%. The decline came from weak seasonal demand, cost inversion at plants, price guidance that suppressed upside, and export quotas. Meanwhile battery demand keeps expanding — lithium iron phosphate cathode capacity growth consumes phosphate rock at roughly 20-30% annually. The chain runs phosphate rock to monoammonium phosphate to iron phosphate to lithium iron phosphate, so MAP sits at the junction of a mature fertilizer market and a fast-growing new energy one.