Can CO2-to-chemicals routes like methanol and starch become commercially viable at scale?

Can CO2-to-chemicals routes like methanol and starch become commercially viable at scale?
China has advanced CO2 utilization across a pyramid: traditional uses (EOR, urea), mineralization (building materials), and chemical/biological conversion. Methanol synthesis via CO2 hydrogenation is the most mature, with Geely's technology achieving over 99% conversion and selectivity, passing 2,000-hour stability tests and a 72-hour on-site assessment, ready for 100,000-tonne scale. However, economic hurdles persist: CO2 is thermodynamically stable, requiring high energy input; and sourcing concentrated, continuous, high-purity CO2 is difficult since atmospheric levels are only ~0.04%. Lab successes like synthetic starch (136x yield improvement) and yeast protein (first industrial plant in Inner Mongolia, 2025) remain cost-challenged. The strategic value is energy security and carbon reduction—each tonne of CO2 to methanol cuts ~1.2 tonnes of emissions—but commercial viability hinges on cheap green hydrogen and carbon pricing.