Can Indonesia and the Philippines form a 'nickel OPEC' to control prices, and what does it mean for Chinese buyers?

Can Indonesia and the Philippines form a 'nickel OPEC' to control prices, and what does it mean for Chinese buyers?
Indonesia's ambition to create a nickel cartel faces structural limits. While Indonesia holds over 40% of global nickel reserves and produces about two-thirds of world supply, it lacks the technology to convert ore into high-grade battery nickel without Chinese firms. Chinese companies built Indonesia's entire nickel processing chain—from RKEF smelting to HPAL leaching—investing over $14 billion since 2015. Without Chinese technical expertise, Indonesia's domestic smelters struggle with maintenance and process control, producing lower-quality nickel that fails battery-grade specifications. Moreover, China's demand diversification—including increased use of lithium iron phosphate batteries that require no nickel—reduces its vulnerability. Indonesia's attempt to force higher prices may backfire, as Chinese buyers can shift to alternative suppliers or technologies, weakening the cartel's pricing power.