I. Price Trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, caustic soda prices showed a weak trend this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 723 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the end of the week was 694 yuan/ton, representing a decline of 4.41%. Compared to the same period last year, the price fell by 26.72%. On January 15, the Business Society Chemical Index stood at 780 points, an increase of 2 points from the previous day. However, it decreased by 44.29% compared to the cycle's peak of 1400 points (recorded on October 23, 2021) and rose by 30.43% compared to the cycle's lowest point of 598 points (recorded on April 8, 2020). (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011, to the present.)

II. Market Analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, caustic soda prices remained weak this week. In Shandong, the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda ranged from 640 to 720 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu, prices remained stable, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda ranging from 740 to 820 yuan/ton. In Inner Mongolia, prices were consolidating, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda (on a 100% basis) ranging from 2100 to 2200 yuan/ton.

This week, the supply of caustic soda remained ample, with no significant reduction in enterprise inventories. Downstream alumina producers showed moderate enthusiasm for entering the market, and their inventories were relatively sufficient. The market remained in a stalemate, with most purchases of caustic soda made on a demand-driven basis. It is expected that the alumina sector will experience a weak and fluctuating trend in the near future.

Analysts at Business Society believe that caustic soda prices will continue to show a weak trend in the near term. Domestic downstream industries are primarily purchasing based on demand, and there is no favorable support in the Shandong market for the coming week. With no substantial improvement in demand and the ongoing supply-demand dynamics, it is anticipated that caustic soda prices will continue to consolidate weakly. The specific trend will depend on downstream market demand.